Minimal has been clouding the waters on this. They initially echoed the IGG policy in a response to a discussion question, saying that if they did not hit the $500K Fixed Goal, all the backers would be refunded. I posted above when, later, also in their reply to a discussion comments they reversed themselves and said even if they didn't reach the goal, the phone would be made. Which would have to mean they don't plan on refunding backers (or at least I don't see how they could do both).
So, yes, quite confusing. Luckily, I'm not a backer.