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silversolver

The COViD19 Coronavirus, consequences and discussion, related to the Pro1 and in general

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comparing influenza vs corona virus is like arguing about black lives matter vs all lives matter. Both are deadly and we shouldn't discount either. Influenza at the least we have yearly vaccines to attempt to get ahead of while also having a better understanding in regards to how it operates. 

The coronavirus seems to be quite deadly with the global reaction to shut down ports, transit, etc appears to be effectively working to prevent the spread. We don't need any more viral outbreaks beyond influenza so the reaction I'd say is reasonably warranted.

Both are bad. Focusing on Coronavirus doesn't discount influenza.

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Coronavirusea like SARS and MERS are 100+ times more deadly than influenza, and the novel one could very well be the same once all the infections run their course. The only reason influenza has a higher absolute death toll is because it infects far more people. China is enacting a quarantine larger than any other in human history to try and stop it. Billions of dollars are being spent to prevent further spread. These diseases are not the same, and can't be compared.

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I heard some epidemic experts talking about all this on Danish national radio, and they estimated that within about two years 50% of the Danish population would have been infected, and about 1% of these would have died. but though 1:200 may sound very high it really is not that bad, as it will have a clear overweight hitting people already weak.

They did not elaborate further on the numbers though.

For all diseases what really matters in any sensible statistics is the mean of the expected lifespan reduction. I guess we can all agree that it is worse if a disease kills one at 25 than at 115, but in simple statistics, they both count as "1"

 

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On 2/6/2020 at 10:08 PM, abielins said:

Coronavirusea like SARS and MERS are 100+ times more deadly than influenza, and the novel one could very well be the same once all the infections run their course. The only reason influenza has a higher absolute death toll is because it infects far more people. China is enacting a quarantine larger than any other in human history to try and stop it. Billions of dollars are being spent to prevent further spread. These diseases are not the same, and can't be compared.

Well the problem is, it is hard to tell. A lot of people have only minor symptoms and nobody will ever know they had corona.
So without knowing the total infected count it is impossible to get a mortality rate. WHO guesses it is at 1% but this is based experience not data (SARS had 10% which is extremly high).

Btw. 100+ times is an overstatement I hope? I thought Influenza had a death rate of 0.2% ...

Edited by Doktor Oswaldo
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44 minutes ago, Doktor Oswaldo said:

Well the problem is, it is hard to tell. A lot of people have only minor symptoms and nobody will ever know they had corona.
So without knowing the total infected count it is impossible to get a mortality rate. WHO guesses it is at 1% but this is based experience not data (SARS had 10% which is extremly high)

Indeed. We lack sober data, and not panic-data as is spread by parts of the press.
We as the public have no idea of the risk of normal healthy individuals when exposed.
Sure we know individual stories, but it general how high is the risk of death for an otherwise healthy individual? Remember that there is also a risk with any other influenza.
The statistics we get unfortunately only counts. We have no idea how healthy or fragile the fatalities were when they got infected.
A "1" counted in the statistics for an otherwise healthy 25 year old fatality, is a lot more concerning than a "1" counted for one aged 125...

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6 minutes ago, EskeRahn said:

Indeed. We lack sober data, and not panic-data as is spread by parts of the press.
We as the public have no idea of the risk of normal healthy individuals when exposed.
Sure we know individual stories, but it general how high is the risk of death for an otherwise healthy individual? Remember that there is also a risk with any other influenza.
The statistics we get unfortunately only counts. We have no idea how healthy or fragile the fatalities were when they got infected.
A "1" counted in the statistics for an otherwise healthy 25 year old fatality, is a lot more concerning than a "1" counted for one aged 125...

Indeed, but we also don't know how many get rid of the virus, so the mortality could fall well under influenca or go as high as sars.
Anyway agree with you that we don't know a big deal yet and panic does not help.

What is for sure is that People should stop buying masks. Most of them are useless. the other ones do only help for 20 minutes or so and do make breathing hard!
 

Edited by Doktor Oswaldo
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1 minute ago, Doktor Oswaldo said:

Indeed, but we also don't know how many get rid of the virus, so the mortality could fall well under influenca or go as high as sars.
Anyway agree with you that we don't know a big deal yet and panic does not help.

What is for sure is that People should stop buying masks. Most of them are useless. the other ones do only help for 20 minutes or so.

Well for the first part we do know a little for those that is known to have been effected, see this. the green curve is rising fast too.
But obviously we have no idea of the numbers of those that were infected, and their body fought it down, without them even knowing they had it.

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3 hours ago, Doktor Oswaldo said:

Btw. 100+ times is an overstatement I hope? I thought Influenza had a death rate of 0.2% ...

No. In the USA 20 million people were infected with influenza this recent season, and there were about 10,000 deaths. That's a mortality rate of roughly 0.05%.

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6 minutes ago, abielins said:

No. In the USA 20 million people were infected with influenza this recent season, and there were about 10,000 deaths. That's a mortality rate of roughly 0.05%.

A good to know, I remembered it wrongly. Thanks.
But to be a gobshite, that is still 1/20 of the corona rate not 1/100 😉

Edited by Doktor Oswaldo

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3 minutes ago, Doktor Oswaldo said:

A good to know, I remembered it wrongly. Thanks.
But to be a gobshite, that is still 1/20 of the corona rate not 1/100 😉

If you re-read my original message, I was referring to SARS and MERS which have a mortality rate of over 10%. We don't know what the mortality rate of the Wuhan coronavirus is yet.

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1 minute ago, abielins said:

If you re-read my original message, I was referring to SARS and MERS which have a mortality rate of over 10%. We don't know what the mortality rate of the Wuhan coronavirus is yet.

Uuuups, you are right, I am sorry!

P.S. yeah we don't know, but best guesses are at 1%

Edited by Doktor Oswaldo

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20 minutes ago, tdm said:

Finally, Seattle is in full coronoavirus mode.  Kids are out of school for at least two weeks starting today and most people are working remote. 

(Same here in Denmark) 😷🤒🤧

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Today my country (United States) and State (Michigan) have basically cancelled EVERYTHING. International shipping, public events, school....you name it, it's cancelled. First it was masks, and now people are hoarding toilet paper, of all things....you can't find it on store shelves now. Coronavirus.

With the panic that this virus has created, you'd think it was like rabies where no one survives, and we were facing mass extinction. Personally, I think that it's becoming increasingly obvious that this will not be remembered as a major medical catastrophe, but as a major PSYCHOLOGICAL catastrophe.

THIS IS A COLD. Why are we stopping the world over a COLD? People get colds. People who are feeble occasionally die from them—or more accurately, from complications during them. This is not new, nor is the fact that from time to time a particular strain will be a little more virulent than others and get a little extra attention. However, the mass panic that is being created deliberately by the talking heads is beyond comprehension.

I think a lot of people genuinely believe that this is like bubonic plague, and half the population of the known world is going to die. I know I don't want to live on this planet anymore. People have lost their minds.

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Posted (edited)

Sorry for having to be this explicit, but everyone who complains about and rejects measures being taken against the free spreading of SARS-CoV-2 assenting accepts the sure death of millions of old and weak human beings on this planet, for whom there is neither vaccination nor cure as soon as they catch the virus. This is a danger and a lethality several magnitudes higher than with a cold, and still much higher than a full-grown influenza.  

Please read and follow what the professionals say on the subject. Having a strong opinion based on hearsay and the internet is no substitute for an academic training in medicine and epidemiology, which is the basis for the measures which are being taken in specifically affected regions, and it's only because those extreme measures have indeed been taken in China that things seem to be very, very slowly be going back to normal at least there. If we successfully oppose such measures wherever we live, it's very probable that our countries will become less lucky. 

Edited by Rob. S.
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@silversolver

For most people it will be just a cold. But for a certain percentage of people it is deadly. Trouble is, we still don't know how many people will catch it world wide and which percentage of them will die from it.

The German chancelor apparently mentioned yesterday that 70% of the German could catch it. If 1% of them die that's more than half million dead we are talking about, just in Germany.

So no, it's not just a cold but it's apparently also not a mass extinsion event either, as it looks like the human race could recover from it 😁

However who knows what political, social and economical changes it could bring. Right now it looks to me like it is shapping to be the worst world crisis I've ever seen. I was born in the 70s.

Sure you can also compare it to the influenza pandemic, which can also be deadly to some. However with one major difference: we do have a vaccine against influenza not so against covid19.

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On 1/23/2020 at 3:24 PM, silversolver said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51217455

I don't know where the factory is, but if it's anywhere near the affected area, disruptions may happen. Also I might let my clack sit for a month to let viruses die LOL.

I have had LOTS of Hello Kitty things come from China.
I'm not sick.
Then again, shipping took weeks.

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Posted (edited)

@Rob. S. Yes, I accept the death of the feeble and elderly. They are never far away from it, and SOMETHING is going to push them over the edge, in most cases sooner rather than later. This is a reality that the feeble and elderly have always faced, and the only thing different now is that we fool ourselves into thinking we can do something about that. We are an increasingly delusional people that way. Once upon a time we accepted our mortality, but now we pretend that it is preventable when it is not. The "vaccines" for cold and flu are of very limited usefulness because the viruses change so fast, and I personally believe they provide more placebo protection than real protection. The placebo effect is real, to the point that studies showed benefit from a placebo even when the test subjects knew it was a placebo! This just proves that our mind is very much in control of our bodies, and the fear being preached will likely kill far more people than the virus alone ever could have. There has never been a cure for the cold or flu, and treatment is just supportive therapy. There really is nothing we can do to stop this short of mandatory house arrest for everyone, everywhere for a month. It will run its course, and life will go on, except for those for whom it doesn't, and that's just how life is anyway. 

@Slion It is a cold. For a certain percentage of people cold and flu are deadly. This is completely normal. If you want to compare it to something, compare it to the 2009 swine flu, which was far more lethal than the scare-onavirus, but caused far less panic.

The political and social changes SHOULD be nothing; it's another flu season—a lot of people are miserable for awhile, a few die, and that's just how life is. Unfortunately, certain people appear to be using this to intentionally cause social unrest and economic destruction, and that is truly despicable. They are using this to destroy the lives of many people, and it won't even stop it from the little physical harm it will do—it will simply augment it with MASSIVE economic harm. The medical consequences of this are not going to be changed much no matter what we do. We now need to mitigate the panic damage.

Edited by silversolver
Correction: caused far less panic
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Just now, sequestris said:

I have had LOTS of Hello Kitty things come from China.
I'm not sick.
Then again, shipping took weeks.

The good news is that, while under conducive conditions the virus is said to be able to sustain six days on smooth material, no infection from shipped goods has been observed until now, and it is thought to be extremely improbable (source: RKI, Germany)...

 

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@silversolver I agree to a very large extent. But the point of the current actions of many governments  is NOT to claim that it can stop the virus (only fools believe that IMHO). The point is to DELAY the spread. So the few that will need treatment can get the treatment. If a lot get sick at the same time the health system will crash. But if it can be prolonged it is possible.

Actually this flu seems to have a rather low mortality, even for the severe cases IF the patient get the iron lung support they need. But that will not be possible to offer if a lot comes in at the same time.

The governments have a very hard task in on one hand make people do what is needed to delay the whole thing, without claiming the whole thing much worse than it actually is.

That some people then misunderstand the whole thing and panics hoarding, is a consequence of how hard it is to communicate....

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8 minutes ago, EskeRahn said:

So the few that will need treatment can get the treatment. If a lot get sick at the same time the health system will crash.

And that not only means that many people being sick with Covid-19 can't be treated anymore, it means that anyone getting sick won't get treatment anymore. It means that people will die a miserable death by appendicitis again. No matter how well they're insured.

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26 minutes ago, silversolver said:

Yes, I accept the death of the feeble and elderly

I'll tell that to the few beloved relatives I still have from my parents' generation when they die of Covid-19, without which they would have had a really good chance to live ten, maybe twenty more years of a happy life. Thank you very much.

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Just now, Rob. S. said:

I'll tell that to the few beloved relatives I still have from my parents' generation when they die of Covid-19, without which they would have had a really good chance to live ten, maybe twenty more years of a happy life. Thank you very much.

They still have a really good chance then, because they can likely avoid this by being cautious like they always do during flu season. If they don't, then they'll have IMHO roughly the same odds as they'd have had with the plain ol' flu that also goes around. My point is that this is no worse than flu, and the panic response is totally unwarranted. I may be right, I may be crazy. Time will tell. I'm a naturally cautious person, and my danger sensors are not sounding alarms about the virus, but they are about the panic. THE PANIC will be very deadly.

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10 minutes ago, Rob. S. said:

And that not only means that many people being sick with Covid-19 can't be treated anymore, it means that anyone getting sick won't get treatment anymore. It means that people will die a miserable death by appendicitis again. No matter how well they're insured.

Unfortunately, this scenario could play, but it won't be because of the virus, but because of the PANIC. Under normal circumstances, those who really need treatment seek it, and the rest just drink chicken juice and take long naps. Under a panic situation, people believe that their non-life-threatening illness, whether scare-onavirus or something else, may be life-threatening, and seek treatment, therefore creating massive demand for services, most of which are completely unneeded. Again, at this point it's all but a guarantee that THE PANIC will be deadly.

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2 hours ago, silversolver said:

THIS IS A COLD. Why are we stopping the world over a COLD? People get colds. People who are feeble occasionally die from them—or more accurately, from complications during them. This is not new, nor is the fact that from time to time a particular strain will be a little more virulent than others and get a little extra attention. However, the mass panic that is being created deliberately by the talking heads is beyond comprehension.

Yeah it is a cold. Pretty the same way than Ebola is casual gastroenteritis.

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