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silversolver

The COViD19 Coronavirus, consequences and discussion, related to the Pro1 and in general

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Jesus christ, I can't believe some of the replies here. People die because of this, the lethality rate is much higher than the flu (or the cold), people that survive can have a significantly worse quality of life, and there's a significant hospitalization rate among the people that get it putting pressure on hospitals that might not be able to take it if drastic actions aren't taken. I sincerely hope everybody stays safe during this pandemic.

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58 minutes ago, SchattengestaIt said:

But we are talking about a lethal rate of around 0.2-0.5%.

Unfortunately we do not really know the numbers here. I think those figures are over-optimistic.

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54 minutes ago, EskeRahn said:

Unfortunately we do not really know the numbers here. I think those figures are over-optimistic.

They might. But I do think that other estimations are pessimistic.

China only documents cases with symptoms, so the lethal rate looks higher than it is. Italia has LOTS of undocumented cases that also increase the proportion of (documented) deaths.

 

The countries with well documented cases and a good health system always had rates of 0.1-0.5% but we will only know in the end.

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31 minutes ago, SchattengestaIt said:

The countries with well documented cases and a good health system always had rates of 0.1-0.5% but we will only know in the end.

South Korea, which has tested a lot of people, had 7300 infected and 50 deaths on March 8th. So, 0,68%, significantly more than you're saying and 6,8 times more than the flue. These numbers can also rise if not kept in check because then the amount of people that need treatment will rise above the level that hospitals can manage, resulting in people with this virus taking places that are needed by people with other issues.

But experts still aren't sure about the percentage, it's too early to tell. It's fair to say it's significantly more than the flue. Personally I'd guess it's between 1% and 4%.

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33 minutes ago, SchattengestaIt said:

The countries with well documented cases and a good health system always had rates of 0.1-0.5% but we will only know in the end.

And a very important factor here is that some will need an Iron lung for a while, but recover completely afterwards.

So to the extent this treatment is available the mortality will be lower than if not. So even if the mortality in hindsight shows a low number, a lot of people might have needed the help of the health care system to survive. And this brings us back to the whole purpose of all that various governments are doing is to to stretch the whole thing over time, so the health system will not break down, as it seems to have done locally in northern Italy.

So to assess the danger rate of the disease, it perhaps would be more relevant with a count of deaths plus the ones that most likely would not have survived without special treatment (beyond what ever they usually might have), e.g. temporary respiratory assistance.

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6 hours ago, Polaris said:
7 hours ago, david said:

- The recommendation is to do what you can to keep your immune system operating well, which means what it always does -- getting enough sleep, lowering stress, eating a balanced diet, exercising, not smoking, using physical keyboards instead of virtual, etc.

Good point.  Yes, this is crucial! 😁

Funny that some of us can't do that because the production of that device has been interrupted by the virus itself...

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1 hour ago, Rob. S. said:

Funny that some of us can't do that because the production of that device has been interrupted by the virus itself...

Note that he didn't say to use the Pro1 (although there is nothing wrong with doing so), but just physical keyboards.  I use my Droid 4 as a daily driver so I've got this one covered. 😁

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On 3/12/2020 at 6:03 PM, Rob. S. said:

Yes, there's the problem – everything I've read about the new coronavirus says that it can cause more severe symptoms (like pneumonia) than influenza, that it spreads faster than influenza, and that it's more lethal than influenza. And of "the same common precautions" an important one is missing, vaccination. And then there's the fact that much of the new virus isn't even known yet – like whether it mutates, how fast, and what will change in mutating.

It's not the most renowned source that I managed to dig up quickly  (most of what I've read so far are German-language sources, I have no English ones handy right now), but i think many important things are summed up well there: https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common

And there's a side effect – every precautions now taken against the coronavirus will also help against this year's influenza, and against it becoming as widespread and lethal as it could...

 

16 hours ago, david said:

I'm not saying any of this as fact.  Just some things some of the experts have shared that I found interesting.  They could be wrong, of course.

- I believe that they believe the reason this spreads faster than other infectious diseases, is because people *might* be contagious almost immediately after exposure and before they get sick (which is 4+ days after exposure).  And, at a minimum, I believe they have shown that people are very contagious even when they are first getting sick (showing symptoms).  And by sick, I mean mildly, as well as deadly sick, depending on their immune system.

- Because of the above, social distancing (people working remotely, limiting large gatherings of people, etc.), is a way to slow it down.  They can't move fast enough to quarantine people, because by the time someone shows symptoms, and they track down the people exposed to the sick person, those people have already passed it to others.  And many (probably most?) people will have mild symptoms and not necessarily attribute it to this virus and may not self-quarantine themselves, still go to work, etc.

- I believe that the theory of the experts is that once China puts people back to work fully, the number/rate of infected people will balloon again.  As @EskeRahn said, they believe it will move through pretty much the entire population (not just China, but everywhere) (due to being contagious very quickly after being exposed).  They can't put the genie back in the bottle, so to speak.  One expert likened it to trying to stop "wind."  It is a matter of balancing the rate of infection to not overwhelm the healthcare systems, yet not collapse economies and financially ruining/stressing individuals/businesses by shutting everything down.  And shutting down grade schools also stresses the healthcare system, because it means some number of healthcare professionals have to stay home to take care of their kids.

- Now, if enough people in China do not go back to work, that could certainly slow the spread, but if the above is true, it may not greatly reduce how many people are infected before it is all over.

- There is a very nasty wildcard here.  They don't know how long your natural immunity lasts for those people who get it and recover.  I believe I read something stating a guess of a certain number of months, but I have to believe that was a total guess, since there is still much they don't know about this strain of the virus.   I believe there are differing views on whether the immunity is permanent or temporary for this exact strain of the virus too.  However, *if* immunity is temporary, and *if* the spread of the virus is slow enough that it doesn't hit everyone before that temporary immunity expires, then the whole thing could flair up again.  Additionally, the virus could mutate, given how many people it is going through, and it is *possible* that a mutated form could reinfect people, regardless of how long it has been since they have recovered from the first strain.

- I'm certainly not saying those possibilities in the previous point are likely, just that it is theoretically possible with something this widespread, depending on the longevity of natural immunity and depending on mutations.

- I also don't think they know yet if people can go from mild symptoms, and looking like they are recovered, to deadly sickness, or if cases where that has happened to people were really those people being reinfected.  This was a question early on with people reacting that way, and I haven't seen much mention of it since then.

- In short, the word from experts who know about how these things spread through populations, and with what they know about this particular strain, is that we could still have another 3-7 months of this virus, until it burns out by infecting the majority of the population.

- The recommendation is to do what you can to keep your immune system operating well, which means what it always does -- getting enough sleep, lowering stress, eating a balanced diet, exercising, not smoking, using physical keyboards instead of virtual, etc.  In those countries where obesity is a problem (*cough* USA *cough*), that and high blood pressure are two things that *could* put someone at greater risk for a more severe reaction.  People who are already immunocompromised (possibly diabetics, elderly, or people with other chronic illnesses), should probably take more precautions than those with stronger immune systems.

- And at least there is one silver lining in all of this.  Only about 2% of those who get seriously ill from this are 19 or younger (at least in China).  It isn't that the other kids don't contract it and not that they don't spread it, it is just that the way it interacts with the immune system of children is such that they largely don't get seriously ill.  Different infectious diseases affect different segments of the population differently, and thankfully children don't appear to be at high risk for this particular one.

- It will be interesting to see, once this is all over, if people learn from it or if their memories are short-term -- diversifying supply-chains, business and government stockpiling of certain products, proper funding for research and and vaccines for certain families of infectious diseases (COVID-19, MERS, SARS, etc.), etc.  On the one hand, this one really should be a wake-up call.  On the other hand, humans don't always make smart choices.

There is a great deal that isn't known, but boy does this sure sound like a bad flu season. Pneumonia is a fairly common complication of influenza, in vulnerable populations, and I don't think that by itself warrants the excitement this is receiving. The fact that this spreads so quickly is the only thing about this that is a little unusual, but again it's not unprecedented.

The mortality rate for this is still very low overall. The comparison was made to ebola, and few diseases are LESS like the scare-onavirus than ebola. If we were dealing with a disease of ebola's severity here, I'd say the response was warranted, and inadequate. The fact is that we're not. This is a bad cold (genetically) that's more like a bad flu, and these things come and go, and most of us go on. We all meet our maker at some point, but I still don't think that this is going to change the rate at which that happens in a meaningful way, unless reasonable precautions aren't taken by vulnerable populations, or the panic gets so ridiculous that we face social upheaval. THAT is a very real danger with how many people seem to believe this is an ebola-level threat.

"We have nothing to fear except fear itself." Truer words were never spoken on this topic, in my opinion.

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Zamasu said:

South Korea, which has tested a lot of people, had 7300 infected and 50 deaths on March 8th. So, 0,68%, significantly more than you're saying and 6,8 times more than the flue. These numbers can also rise if not kept in check because then the amount of people that need treatment will rise above the level that hospitals can manage, resulting in people with this virus taking places that are needed by people with other issues.

But experts still aren't sure about the percentage, it's too early to tell. It's fair to say it's significantly more than the flue. Personally I'd guess it's between 1% and 4%.

I still believe that that number will be skewed higher by unreported cases. The data we have now suggests that many, if not most, cases will show mild symptoms, which will not be recorded other than by OTC cold remedy suppliers who note a bump in sales. Personally, I am assuming I'm going to get it, and 100% sure it will never be documented, because I don't go to the doctor for things that don't seem sure to kill me. I know a ton of people who are just like me in that regard, and my circle is fairly small.

Edited by silversolver

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Polaris said:

Note that he didn't say to use the Pro1 (although there is nothing wrong with doing so), but just physical keyboards.  I use my Droid 4 as a daily driver so I've got this one covered. 😁

Me too! :) Droid 4 ever!

Edited by silversolver
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Posted (edited)

I'm hearing from someone with contacts to italian medical personnel, that some hospitals already have to use triage, that they already need to make the choice which severely affected covid-19 patients will get treatment and which don't (= will be left to possibly die, although saving their lives might very well be possible). And this still is only the beginning.

Edited by Rob. S.
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19 minutes ago, Rob. S. said:

I'm hearing from someone with contacts to italian medical personnel, that some hospitals already have to use triage, that they already need to make the choice which severely affected covid-19 patients will get treatment and which don't (= will be left to possibly die, although saving their lives might very well be possible). And this still is only the beginning.

Yes, I heard the same.  And hospital personnel have to work even if sick. 

Horrible decisions for doctors to have to make, not just once, but continuously.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/13/2020 at 1:27 PM, EskeRahn said:

[...] this brings us back to the whole purpose of all that various governments are doing is to to stretch the whole thing over time, so the health system will not break down [...]

Indeed... German public service television finally made that clear in the 'heute-journal' yesterday, one of the more respectable and popular ('popular' in the limits of traditional television still being a thing at all today) background-information centered late-evening news magazines. At this point, they said, it's a pandemic, the spreading of which cannot be stopped anymore; they expect roughly two thirds of the population to be exposed to the virus and to become infected. 80% of the infected will only get mild or very mild symptoms, 20% will need medical care, and 6% (which belong to the 20%, too) will need intensive care. And the goal of all the measures and restrictions is to stretch and flatten the curve as much as possible, optimally over roughly a whole year, so that it won't overload the hospitals significantly, as it seems to already be the case not only in Italy, but also in Spain.

Meanwhile, measures and restrictions in Germany have been intensified, but it is not easy to recount them, because they vary between federal states, which have the sovereignty in these matters. Which also makes national coordination of measures more difficult. In my state, Rhineland-Palatinate, schools have been closed, there's a ban on assemblies with more than 75 attendants, hospitals get help to increase the number of beds for intensive care.

Edited by Rob. S.
Typo
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2 hours ago, Rob. S. said:

Meanwhile, measures and restrictions in Germany have been intensified, but it is not easy to recount them, because they vary between federal states, which have the sovereignty in these matters. Which also makes national coordination of measures more difficult. In my state, Rhineland-Palatinate, schools have been closed, there's a ban on assemblies with more than 75 attendants, hospitals get help to increase the number of beds for intensive care.

The same is going in Finland. In the hospital I work in, have been made calculations of maximum possible amount of beds in intensive care. It actually depends more on available amount of ventilators, and the amount of available (not infected) nurses and doctors. The amount of staff is actually most interesting point; We already have quite an amount of people in quarantine because of being travelling abroad. Plus the normal cold, gastroenteritis, influenza, rs-virus stuff. So we are already running low on nurses although there's no corona virus infections on our area yet 😄

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, auvo.salmi said:

the amount of available (not infected) nurses and doctors.

Now this is interesting.....if the nurses and doctors have the same disease as the patient, there's no danger of provider to patient transmission of illness. As long as what everyone has is known, people with mild cases can treat those with severe cases of the same thing. Internal segregation in the hospitals should already be in place, and make this possible. Of course you'd hate to be that doctor or nurse who has to work while you feel lousy, but sometimes that's life. Sometimes we all have to work when we feel lousy.

Thus far it seems that the biggest danger is not how serious the illness is, but how easily, hence quickly, it spreads. However, there is another issue here too; closing all non-essential things for any period of time can devastate economies, as any business which is struggling may simply never reopen, with the consequences to their employees, shareholders, and customers.

I think part of the reason that this is panicking people is that they have forgotten history. The Spanish Flu of 1918 was far, far worse than scare-onavirus, killing about 10% of its victims, and yes, a large part of that was due to overloading medical facilities. The seasonal flu is far worse than scare-onavirus, in the grand scheme of things! In 2018, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 49 million Americans contracted the flu.  About 960,000 were hospitalized. More than 80,000 died. Why are we not closing down the world for the flu season? Because it would be too economically disruptive, of course.

My position remains the same: this is a really bad flu season, nothing more, it is not unprecedented, and it does not represent an existential threat which warrants the level of drastic action being taken. Personally I think that what we're being told to do is to embrace living without living, a living death, because of the fear of actual death. None of us make it out of life alive, but some of us never live, because we're afraid to take the risks that make life worth living. I will live until I die. If high-risk people are concerned about this, they should stay out of circulation for awhile, just like they do every flu season. I have a life to live, until it ends naturally, not until some fear-monger tells me I should be too afraid to keep living.

Disclosure: I'm 36, but I just talked yesterday to some friends who are in their early 70s, both diabetics, and they have taken the exact same position I have on the matter. They know they're high risk, but they have a life to live. Live until you die.

Edited by silversolver
More details about my old friends
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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, silversolver said:

Now this is interesting.....if the nurses and doctors have the same disease as the patient, there's no danger of provider to patient transmission of illness. As long as what everyone has is known, people with mild cases can treat those with severe cases of the same thing. Internal segregation in the hospitals should already be in place, and make this possible. Of course you'd hate to be that doctor or nurse who has to work while you feel lousy, but sometimes that's life. Sometimes we all have to work when we feel lousy.

In theory, yes. But actually it isn't that simple; there isn't only "infected" and "not infected". Technically there is group of "infected", of which illness has been proven by corona virus test, and the other group is "unclear", which includes all the people with no symptoms. So it includes:

a) healthy, not infected people

b) infected, but no symptoms, which can further be divided to:

a) no symptoms yet

b) no symptoms to come

These last two groups are most dangerous in hospital world, because they are mistakenly threaten as "healthy", so they can infect both staff and patients. It's not planned to test people without symptoms, so basically they may spread the virus until they get symptoms, if they get them at all. Of course in Italy's situation it doesn't matter too much anymore, because they have to recruit all the hospital staff who are able to work, no matter if you have the virus or not.

"My position remains the same: this is a really bad flu season, nothing more, it is not unprecedented, and it does not represent an existential threat which warrants the level of drastic action being taken. Personally I think that what we're being told to do is to embrace living without living, a living death, because of the fear of actual death. None of us make it out of life alive, but some of us never live, because we're afraid to take the risks that make life worth living. I will live until I die. If high-risk people are concerned about this, they should stay out of circulation for awhile, just like they do every flu season. I have a life to live, until it ends naturally, not until some fear-monger tells me I should be too afraid to keep living.

Disclosure: I'm 36, but I just talked yesterday to some friends who are in their early 70s, both diabetics, and they have taken the exact same position I have on the matter. They know they're high risk, but they have a life to live. Live until you die."

I feel this quite selfish because of the same reasons I wrote above. Because it's actually not about your life or health, but the others. Not exactly the same, but what if you had some one night love with somebody, and at morning she/he tells you that she/he got AIDS/hepatitis and you didn't use condom. She/he argues that she/he already got the disease, and she/he doesn't care about the others. How would you feel at this situation? Bit stupid of course, because of no condom was used, but what else? Then think yourself being a symptomless carrier of corona virus, infecting all the people close to you. Some of them die. Would you like to tell them that it's because of you? Because you don't care about your life, means that those people didn't have their chance to choose? Because only some fragile people feel like "I'm ready to die on any moment" Most of them are like "Please let me maintain my health a little longer". They are not ready to to die because of some idiot.

Okay, I admit that I dramatized it quite a lot. But I guess you found my point 😄 Weak, fragile people sure know that they should avoid crowds etc on corona/flu/ebola/wtf season. But they still need to get to grocery store etc. I think you should wear a sign when you go around public areas. A sign with text "I am an arrogant bastard" on it. So the people would know to pick the other queue in grocery store and not yours 😄

Edited by auvo.salmi
don't know how to divide the same post to multiple quotes
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In case anyone is wondering, yes, it is possible to scrub down the Pro1 keyboard with 70% isopropyl alcohol without causing any damage.

No prizes will be awarded for guessing how I know this.

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13 hours ago, auvo.salmi said:

Because it's actually not about your life or health, but the others

Indeed. And this isn't a matter of a decision between leading an unhappy life in senseless panic and fear on one hand vs. a happy, fulfilled but risky life on the other, either, as if those two were the only options we had. If someone can only lead a happy and fulfilled life in acting risky and endangering others, if taking just a few easy precautions and minding just a few restrictions for a while to help keeping others alive and well will make someone's life unhappy and unfulfilled, I feel sorry for them.

By the way, things are accelerating around me – I've been suspended from work this morning as a suspected Covid-19 case after having had contact with a colleague last week who has become a confirmed case in the meantime, a sixty-year-old of normal health who, as far as I have been able to find out, seems to be hospitalized and suffering from pneumonia. At this time, I'm staying at home, waiting for instructions from the local health authority which I've informed by e-mail in the morning; probably I'll be quarantined at home for up to two weeks.

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6 hours ago, peter.s.fidelman said:

In case anyone is wondering, yes, it is possible to scrub down the Pro1 keyboard with 70% isopropyl alcohol without causing any damage.

No prizes will be awarded for guessing how I know this.

Good luck getting alcohol nowadays!

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9 minutes ago, SchattengestaIt said:

Good luck getting alcohol nowadays!

When I was at the supermarket the other day, the liquor shelves were still well-stocked! 😉 

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2 hours ago, Rob. S. said:

When I was at the supermarket the other day, the liquor shelves were still well-stocked! 😉 

Strong enough to feel good, not strong enough to kill the virus. 🍸😁

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57 minutes ago, david said:

Strong enough to feel good, not strong enough to kill the virus. 🍸😁

80% Stroh Rum? (that is 160 for the US public)

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14 minutes ago, EskeRahn said:

80% Stroh Rum? (that is 160 for the US public)

Well, yes, some of those high proof types will do it.  Maybe a little more expensive than isopropyl alcohol. Lol

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