The COViD19 Coronavirus, consequences and discussion, related to the Pro1 and in general

[silversolver 849]

10 hours ago, david said:

Well, yes, some of those high proof types will do it.  Maybe a little more expensive than isopropyl alcohol. Lol

Well, when people are desperate they take what they can get, and besides, a nip on your hands and a nip down the hatch is more fun than just a nip on your hands. LOL

I know a lot of you think I'm stupid to say this is all stupid, but where I live everywhere people congregate is closed by edict. I despise that. If people wish to take the risk, that should be their choice. If people wish to sequester themselves, that should be their choice too. Furthermore, this has still had far less impact globally than the 2009/10 swine flu, and the panic was nowhere near this great over that. Have we gotten that much more panicky in 10 years, or is there just more political hay to be gathered? You decide....

[Craig 1,435]

I asked earlier if anyone had found any silver lining deals as a result of this, and got no replies.  There must be something?

[Slion 1,200]

[SchattengestaIt 559]

3 hours ago, silversolver said:

swine flu, and the panic was nowhere near this great over that.

Well, as much as I remember, the swine flu didn't have many symptoms and it wasn't lethal after all (correct me if I'm wrong).

This virus really is different and way more contagioud than Influenza and other viruses. And considering the different death numbers there's a lot of room for panic, And I still think that they are so different because people don't get tested and 80% infected don't show heavier symptoms at all.

[auvo.salmi 135]

4 hours ago, Craig said:

I asked earlier if anyone had found any silver lining deals as a result of this, and got no replies.  There must be something?

If you had been faster, you could have hoarded all the hand desinfection bottles, toilet paper etc and now sell them from the trunk of your car with huuuge profit. Or perhaps not yet but few weeks later. But speaking of cars, I noticed that fuel is significantly cheap right now, at least in Finland. Cant remember last time I have seen 98 octane for less than 1,5€ per liter (my T3 van eats it). Must be at least ten or twent years after last time. Also diesel was already 0,10€ less per liter than it's normal lowest price point. So good moment to hoard some fuel?

[Rob. S. 1,647]

11 hours ago, silversolver said:

I know a lot of you think I'm stupid to say this is all stupid, but where I live everywhere people congregate is closed by edict. I despise that. If people wish to take the risk, that should be their choice. If people wish to sequester themselves, that should be their choice too. Furthermore, this has still had far less impact globally than the 2009/10 swine flu, and the panic was nowhere near this great over that. Have we gotten that much more panicky in 10 years, or is there just more political hay to be gathered? You decide....

I, for one, don't think you're stupid, you're obviously intelligent enough as your factual knowledge of and insight in the subject matter clearly suggests, but you've decided to stop thinking halfway through, and to ignore each and every factual aspect of the current pandemic that would get in between your mostly ideological conviction and the facts, especially those facts which affect the wellbeing of other human beings who don't share your ideology; an ideology you're obviously intent on advocating publicly, trying to influence people to act less reponsibly and thereby to endanger other people more than necessary. And that actually makes you a more dangerous person than if you were just stupid.

Just a few words to the specific falsehoods you're trying to spread in your new post, which are really easy to counter:

"If people wish to take [a] risk, that should be their choice", yes of course! But as soon as they endanger others with it, it stops being solely their own choice.

"[T]his has still had far less impact globally than the 2009/10 swine flu" – technically correct, but what does "still" really mean here? The swine flu pandemic lasted a whole 17 months and took 14,286 lives (confirmed deaths) over the whole period. 3,642 in North America, 2,290 in Europe. The COVID-19 pandemic, on the other hand, has only been spreading for a few weeks, and today we already have 7,103 deaths world-wide (source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control)! The swine flu figures for Europe over 17 months have already been exceeded this early with 2,158 deaths in Italy alone! And not just that the case numbers keep increasing, the world-wide speed with which new infections appear is still increasing!

All of this is no reason for panic, to make this clear, and some people are clearly overreacting, thereby making everything more difficult for all others who act more rationally and thoughtfully. But there's no reason to play anything down, either.

US-Americans might still somehow feel safe because there are just 85 confirmed COVID-19 deaths up to now, but that would be lulling oneself into a false sense of security. A trusted and knowledgeable acquaintance working in medical who's far from being prone to panic or exaggeration says that the early and strict measures and the good preconditions with regard to a relatively large number of intensive care beds here in Germany might just be enough to stretch things so the health system won't collapse, but he expects things to "get really bad in the USA and the UK, where the governments are completely screwing it up". I still very much hope he's wrong with the latter part. An irresponsible populace, though, will surely not help in preventing it.

[silversolver 849]

1 hour ago, Rob. S. said:

I, for one, don't think you're stupid, you're obviously intelligent enough as your factual knowledge of and insight in the subject matter clearly suggests, but you've decided to stop thinking halfway through, and to ignore each and every factual aspect of the current pandemic that would get in between your mostly ideological conviction and the facts, especially those facts which affect the wellbeing of other human beings who don't share your ideology; an ideology you're obviously intent on advocating publicly, trying to influence people to act less reponsibly and thereby to endanger other people more than necessary. And that actually makes you a more dangerous person than if you were just stupid.

Just a few words to the specific falsehoods you're trying to spread in your new post, which are really easy to counter:

"If people wish to take [a] risk, that should be their choice", yes of course! But as soon as they endanger others with it, it stops being solely their own choice.

"[T]his has still had far less impact globally than the 2009/10 swine flu" – technically correct, but what does "still" really mean here? The swine flu pandemic lasted a whole 17 months and took 14,286 lives (confirmed deaths) over the whole period. 3,642 in North America, 2,290 in Europe. The COVID-19 pandemic, on the other hand, has only been spreading for a few weeks, and today we already have 7,103 deaths world-wide (source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control)! The swine flu figures for Europe over 17 months have already been exceeded this early with 2,158 deaths in Italy alone! And not just that the case numbers keep increasing, the world-wide speed with which new infections appear is still increasing!

All of this is no reason for panic, to make this clear, and some people are clearly overreacting, thereby making everything more difficult for all others who act more rationally and thoughtfully. But there's no reason to play anything down, either.

US-Americans might still somehow feel safe because there are just 85 confirmed COVID-19 deaths up to now, but that would be lulling oneself into a false sense of security. A trusted and knowledgeable acquaintance working in medical who's far from being prone to panic or exaggeration says that the early and strict measures and the good preconditions with regard to a relatively large number of intensive care beds here in Germany might just be enough to stretch things so the health system won't collapse, but he expects things to "get really bad in the USA and the UK, where the governments are completely screwing it up". I still very much hope he's wrong with the latter part. An irresponsible populace, though, will surely not help in preventing it.

Your numbers are order of magnitude low on the swine flu. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic reports that 10-11% of the world was infected, with between 150,000 fatalities, and 565,000 fatalities. This scare-onavirus has been nowhere near that bad, and even left to itself was unlikely to get that bad.

It has been said that the reason we generally do nothing drastic about the flu is that it would be too economically disruptive. I wish I could remember who said that, but it is a pretty self-evident statement, really. Why then is this scare-onavirus such cause for panic? Could it be that powerful evil forces are seizing an opportunity to deliberately damage major economies for their own political benefit? Just a theory, of course.

Also, as of yesterday night the number of serious cases of scare-onavirus in the US was 12. Yes, 12. That's hardly "overwhelm the medical system" territory. Italy has the 5th oldest population in the world, so naturally they're going to be hit harder than places with younger populations. What's good for the goose may not be needed for the gander.

I am puzzled a little as to why you are interpreting the risk-taking as forcing others to take it with you. No one is forcing anyone to take the risk of going to public places where they might contract an illness, and this is true with or without a fear of pandemic. Those who choose to take that risk shouldn't be demonized as irresponsible, and they shouldn't be told it's not allowed by the mommies in government. We take risks every day. At least in the US, we are still far more likely to be hit by lightning or killed in a car accident than to be seriously afflicted by this scare-onavirus.

The only silver lining to the whole panic is that we'll probably get this out of our system fairly quickly at this rate.

Edited March 17, 2020 by silversolver

[__fastcall 97]

I've really thought the userbase here is a bit smarter than that.

 

Kind of sad.

[Rob. S. 1,647]

31 minutes ago, silversolver said:

Your numbers are order of magnitude low on the swine flu. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic reports that 10-11% of the world was infected, with between 150,000 fatalities, and 565,000 fatalities. This scare-onavirus has been nowhere near that bad, and even left to itself was unlikely to get that bad.

If we want to keep up the assumption that you're not stupid, you're giving us more and more reason to suspect that you're purposefully and heavily distorting the truth to advocate your ideology, spreading lies to influence people to behave in a way that follows your personal ideology, thereby endangering others.

My numbers are not "order of magnitude low". They're from the exact same source you're citing. We can only compare confirmed deaths with confirmed deaths, which is what I did. You, on the other hand, are trying to compare total estimated deaths of the swine flu, estimated after it all was over, with current confirmed deaths for COVID-19. If that isn't on purpose, it is stupid, but if it is, it is malicious.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Rob. S.

[silversolver 849]

7 hours ago, Rob. S. said:

If we want to assume you're not stuipid, you're giving us more and more reason to suspect that you're purposefully and heavily distorting the truth to advocate your ideology, spreading lies to influence people to behave in a way that follows your personal ideology, which will endanger others.

My numbers are not "order of magnitude low", they're from the exact same source. We can only compare confirmed deaths with confirmed deaths, which is what I did. You, on the other hand, are trying to compare total estimated deaths of the swine flu, calculated after it all was over, with current confirmed deaths for COVID-19. If that wasn't on purpose, it was stupid, but if it was, it was malicious.

OK, that's fair....I wasn't comparing apples to apples there, now that you mention it. You caught a mismatched dataset that I genuinely didn't notice. I think my general point still stands without that item though.

With one possible exception, no one here is wishing for anyone else to die, from this or anything else. Life is a balancing act, where we decide what is an acceptable risk for a possible reward. I feel that the balancing act is not even being contemplated right now. We're pursuing the impossible dream of total risk mitigation, and not caring who or what is destroyed along the way. Am I really the only one who sees a problem with that?

Edited March 17, 2020 by silversolver

[Rob. S. 1,647]

2 hours ago, silversolver said:

OK, that's fair....I wasn't comparing apples to apples there, now that you mention it. You caught a mismatched dataset that I genuinely didn't notice. 

 I grant you that "making a mistake" is a third option beside "stupid" and "malicious"...

2 hours ago, silversolver said:

I think my general point still stands without that item though.

But it never did in the first place. In judging the case at hand, we have a large bandwidth of possible assessments, with two extremes – one extreme that fears the end of the world, spreads panic and has bought truckloads of toilet paper, and another extreme that doesn't see anything worth noting except that everyone else are fearmongers and panic spreaders. As usual, both extremes are wrong, and, as usual, science and the professionals of the involved fields are the places where the most sensible answers are to be found.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Rob. S.

[silversolver 849]

6 hours ago, Rob. S. said:

But it never did in the first place. In judging the case at hand, we have a large bandwidth of possible assessments, with two extremes – one extreme that fears the end of the world, spreads panic and has bought truckloads of toilet paper, and another extreme that doesn't see anything worth noting except that everyone else are fearmongers and panic spreaders. As usual, both extremes are wrong, and, as usual, science and the professionals of the involved fields are the places where the most sensible answers are to be found.

Again I'm puzzled. I have never said that there's nothing worth noting; only that the extreme precautions and any panic at all are unwarranted, based on the available data. I am between your extremes as you stated them, having observed that those at high risk would do well to take extra precautions, as they should during flu season anyway, but that the general freakout and resulting general shutdowns are completely unwarranted. Caution is not panic, and many actions being taken now by both individuals and governing bodies are not representing, in my opinion, caution, but panic. It sounds like we may in fact agree on that, and our disagreement is simply in what level of caution is warranted, and how much of the massive reaction is actually warranted rather than overreaction.

Frankly, this topic is becoming wearying to me. At this point, it will be what it will be, this whole mess is virtually 100% out of our control, and there's little point in either of us continuing to invest the amount of emotional energy we have been into this topic. That said, I very much appreciate the vigorous yet polite debate, and found it very intellectually stimulating. I hope neither of us thinks the other is stupid or evil; I know I don't think that of you. Good people sometimes disagree on things, and situations like this where there are so many unknowns (and possibly so much not being reported, or even misreported) will naturally lead to a huge range of conclusions drawn from the available data, with some of them being more intellectually rigorous than others, of course. Hindsight is 20/20, so they say, and we'll know much more about this in upcoming months. Hopefully this will all be over very quickly.

I wish you good health, much clacking, and I hope to discuss less stressful things with you in the near future.

Edited March 17, 2020 by silversolver

[Rob. S. 1,647]

9 hours ago, silversolver said:

Caution is not panic, and many actions being taken now by both individuals and governing bodies are not representing, in my opinion, caution, but panic. It sounds like we may in fact agree on that, and our disagreement is simply in what level of caution is warranted, and how much of the massive reaction is actually warranted rather than overreaction.

Agreed – although it seems we differ in that by a large margin...

9 hours ago, silversolver said:

I wish you good health, much clacking, and I hope to discuss less stressful things with you in the near future.

The same to you!

 

[VaZso 1,997]

9 hours ago, silversolver said:

Again I'm puzzled. I have never said that there's nothing worth noting; only that the extreme precautions and any panic at all are unwarranted, based on the available data. I am between your extremes as you stated them, having observed that those at high risk would do well to take extra precautions, as they should during flu season anyway, but that the general freakout and resulting general shutdowns are completely unwarranted.

I don't want to restart your debate, just would like to write my own opinion.

Those of high risks usually do some precautions. So they apply for vaccination and try to avoid to catch the virus.
However, for this virus, there is no vaccination yet and it can spread very quickly and causes pneumonia not as the result of weakening the person's immune system but directly.

The biggest and worst part of this whole virus I think is the very long incubation period.
So if you are ill, you can do many precautions to not infect others... but if you don't even know you are ill (yet), then you don't really able to avoid to infect others.
I think that is the most serious reason to do extreme precautions in general.

Healthy system generally runs close to its limits in my country.
If they are not do such restrictions, they run into their limits very quickly which would cause a lot of death which could be prevented if the amount of people would be not really high (unfortunately, they may easily reach their limits also if these restrictions applies but I hope I am not right).
Even the strongest healthy system is not prepared to handle very high amount of ill people at once, especially not extreme cases which seem to be a really high chance caused by this virus.

Unfortunately, even Italy has very serious bad weeks now and all what we want is to try to avoid a similar breakdown locally what these countries where the virus appeared earlier currently have.
Remember, they were the first in Europe where this virus came up and we still didn't have real experience about it.
Every other countries try to learn (more or less successfully) about how serious is the virus and how to avoid a high healthy problem.

However, it will strongly affect economy so it causes a lot of non-health related problems to deal with.
 

[Rob. S. 1,647]

Here's some additional food for thought on the subject (which I got from a German source that was cited in another forum I'm active in, while I cite the 1977 translation by Alan Sheridan here) – perhaps worth reflecting on especially in our day and age, even if we agree with most of the concrete measures that have been taken against a quicker-than-necessary spreading of the virus...

The plague-stricken town, traversed throughout with hierarchy, surveillance, observation, writing; the town immobilized by the functioning of an extensive power that bears in a distinct way over all individual bodies – this is the utopia of the perfectly governed city. The plague (envisaged as a possibility at least) is the trial in the course of which one may define ideally the exercise of disciplinary power.

Michel Foucault, „Discipline and Punish“, 1975

Edited March 18, 2020 by Rob. S.

[silversolver 849]

2 hours ago, VaZso said:

However, for this virus, there is no vaccination yet......

Healthy system generally runs close to its limits in my country.........

However, it will strongly affect economy so it causes a lot of non-health related problems to deal with.
 

I appreciate your perspective, and wanted to make a few brief remarks on a few minor things, quoted above. I have long contended (based on scientific evidence) that the actual protection offered by the influenza vaccines is very, very limited, due to the nature of the virus, and how quickly it changes. I firmly believe that most of the benefit is placebo effect, which is a very real benefit.....if you think it will help you, it does, at least a little. A positive mental attitude is the best thing you can do for your health. Ergo, "vaccinate" with saline, don't tell people that's all it is, and you'll save lives. Funny, but true.

In the US, with all the much ballyhooed problems (and some IMO "problems") capacity is nonetheless very good, and in most places we have a lot of excess capacity. This is another reason I see the extreme response here as overreaction. Again, what's good for the goose may not be necessary for the gander.

I firmly believe that the economic devastation that these mass closures will create will be causing suffering long after the illness itself is forgotten, for decades in some cases. It will destroy many small businesses and families' livelihoods. The danger of not closing everything is being proclaimed at the highest volumes from the highest pinnacles, but almost no one seems to be looking at the dangers of doing it, and that is unbalanced and foolish at best.

Good health and happy clacking! (Maybe I should make that my signature LOL)

[sequestris 710]

On 1/27/2020 at 11:59 AM, Waxberry said:

China has shut down all the public transportation at the moment to slow/stop the spread the virus. 

China has also extent it's national holiday for the Chinese New Year. 

There are still quite a few days until the official holiday ends, we will see how things goes in the next few days and will react accordingly. Luckily I got myself back a few days before the mass spread of the virus and the lock down of the different areas. (Otherwise I will be locked into somewhere for 14 days lol)

I started reading this post today. I guess since I haven't left the house much and primarily use my phone as a phone, it hadn't occurred to me to come visit this forum. I apologize for that. I should have checked in, and checked in on my peeps. It's just surreal. This post here, and moving forwards, you can almost track progression. We go from concern to trepidation, to fear pretty quickly.

And I get it - people want their phones. What I want is for all the people like you to be around when this whole thing has passed. I want to know that you are safe and then one day we can go back to normal and make jokes and tease eachother. Levity right now seems so not appropriate.

I worry every day. I worry about my 85 year old mother who is in a hotel in Cali because we are too scared for her to go to 3 airports to come home to Chicago. I worry about staying healthy so I can be there for my family. I worry that people in this country can't just keep their asses home. NOT be a part of the problem.

So I guess, dear Wax, I want to say that even though I am just a complete stranger, someone you trade cat pictures with, and chat with on the forum, I do care. I care about your well being and your country. I care that you are okay.

[silversolver 849]

18 minutes ago, sequestris said:

So I guess, dear Wax, I want to say that even though I am just a complete stranger, someone you trade cat pictures with, and chat with on the forum, I do care. I care about your well being and your country. I care that you are okay.

If it makes you feel better, he lives in the UK, not China, although he is of Chinese descent. :)

Be well, and thanks for all the warm wishes. I have said many times that I believe the fears are very much greater than the actual danger. Your mother is definitely in the age group that needs to be very cautious, but fear is not helpful....it undermines the immune system, and causes us to think less rationally than we otherwise would. Breathe deeply, and think positively, and the world becomes a better place.

[silversolver 849]

3 hours ago, Rob. S. said:

Here's some additional food for thought on the subject (which I got from a German source that was cited in another forum I'm active in, while I cite the 1977 translation by Alan Sheridan here) – perhaps worth reflecting on especially in our day and age, even if we agree with most of the concrete measures that have been taken against a quicker-than-necessary spreading of the virus...

The plague-stricken town, traversed throughout with hierarchy, surveillance, observation, writing; the town immobilized by the functioning of an extensive power that bears in a distinct way over all individual bodies – this is the utopia of the perfectly governed city. The plague (envisaged as a possibility at least) is the trial in the course of which one may define ideally the exercise of disciplinary power.

Michel Foucault, „Discipline and Punish“, 1975

This is perhaps what scares me the most. The response is increasingly looking like totalitarianism, and there are places in the the world where that doesn't play well. I am very concerned about the real possibility that civil unrest, or civil war, may be triggered by what will certainly be considered by many to be massive government overreach. Suffice it to say that many do not consider the scenario described in that translated paragraph to be a utopia; they consider it to be a repressed psychological prison.

[EskeRahn 5,427]

To ignore it would be foolish, and to lock down the whole world is too.

I wonder if it would not have been a more rational approach to this whole thing to find ways to separate in clean and unclean, at let the disease 'rage' among any below say 50 (or where you want to put the cut), as any other flu/cold, All us above the limit working should be strongly advised to work from home.

Isolate the vulnerable, and use the resources on guaranteeing disinfected deliveries of whatever groceries etc needed. One could even have transformed some holiday-camps and/or hotels to safe-havens for the vulnerable. Like clean oases offering the elderly social interaction with other non-infected persons.

Of course if anyone in the vulnerable group would choose to take the risk, they should be allowed to do so, after attempted persuasion.

This way the economy in general could go on, and the resources used where they are needed and benefits the most.

Also the groups that are vulnerable are MUCH more likely to react to any advises on changed behaviour than the younger generations.

[Rob. S. 1,647]

1 hour ago, silversolver said:

Suffice it to say that many do not consider the scenario described in that translated paragraph to be a utopia; they consider it to be a repressed psychological prison.

Which I suppose is exactly what Foucault wanted to express – a utopia for the rulers, a dystopia for the inhabitants. The complete title of the book is "Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison", it is about the Western penal systems, and being confined to my home for the next ten days this might be a good time to read it, which I didn't do yet. 😉 

Totalitarianism, by the way, is a subject which has even more to do with this current situation than one might think at first glance. If we look at what people in affected countries are still allowed to do and what they aren't, we find that the whole private sphere outside one's home is massively restricted, whereas most people still have to go to work, no matter how important or unimportant (perhaps even detrimental to the planet) the products their employers sell are or the services they provide. Just because the abstract 'value creation' of the economy has to be kept up, because the important things cannot "just be done" as long as the necessary resources, material, workforce are there, no, someone has to have generated money before anything can be done.

I have low hopes, though, that this pandemic will make enough people think about all of that a bit more.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Rob. S.

[Rob. S. 1,647]

On 3/13/2020 at 2:41 AM, Craig said:

Anyone know any real good deals as a result of coronavirus, etc?

In a summary of what Germany's "Heise" IT news portal published today, there are a lot of special offers for software and services available right now, albeit some of them restricted to a limited time of free or cheaper usage.

Collaboration: Google G Suite, Lifesize (meetings, videochats), Microsoft Teams, Pronto (also videochat), Teamviewer (free version is normally intended for non-commercial use only, but those who use it professionally during the Corona crisis do not need to fear payment requests. Inofficially it is said anything less than 150 simultaneous connections is tolerated), Zoho Remotely. 

Network and infrastructure: Cloudflare for Teams, Nginx Plus

Health:  Folding@home, LOOX

Multimedia: SnagIt, Video Review

Gaming: Goat of Duty , and also sales at Steam, GOG, Humble Store

Most of the links I've left unedited and some may lead to pages in German language, but I suspect you'll manage to navigate to other languages easily.

 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Rob. S.

[silversolver 849]

Random nugget for perspective. From https://www.worldometers.info/

Quick facts:

• Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses.
• This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.

Sources and info:

• Seasonal flu death estimate increases worldwide - CDC
• Up to 650 000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year - World Health Organization (WHO)

[Craig 1,435]

Dont worry, there are more than 250 people born every minute. 

In 2016 the figure was 4.3/second, which corresponds almost a million per day or more than 336 million/year.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Craig

[EskeRahn 5,427]

2 minutes ago, Craig said:

Dont worry, there are more than 256 people born every minute. 

This figure corresponds to 4.3/second, almost a million per day or more than 336 million/year.

....with all the time people are confined to be at home, expect a baby boom...