The COViD19 Coronavirus, consequences and discussion, related to the Pro1 and in general

[Hook 3,020]

10 minutes ago, EskeRahn said:

....with all the time people are confined to be at home, expect a baby boom...

Unless they are practicing safe social distancing.  😜

[Craig 1,435]

Pro¹ got this yesterday:

03-16-20-Health-Officer-Order-to-Shelter-in-Place.pdf FAQ-Shelter-in-Place-03-17-20.pdf

Edited March 18, 2020 by Craig

[david 929]

1 hour ago, Craig said:

Pro¹ got this yesterday:

03-16-20-Health-Officer-Order-to-Shelter-in-Place.pdf 509.78 kB · 0 downloads FAQ-Shelter-in-Place-03-17-20.pdf 183.57 kB · 0 downloads

Yeah, I saw that too (online).  Clear as mud. 😕

Seems you might be charged with a crime if a police officer sees you sneezing into your hands or not covering it at all.  Or shaking hands.  Pretty drastic order.

The part about sending homeless people indoors seemed counter-intuitive.

Edited March 18, 2020 by david

[Rob. S. 1,661]

What Happens If the US Does Absolutely Nothing To Combat COVID-19?

Quote

On Monday, the Imperial College report on COVID-19 was released and the results are terrifying. For those who may not know, the Imperial College in London "has advised the government on its response to previous epidemics, including SARS, avian flu and swine flu," reports The New York Times. "With ties to the World Health Organization and a team of 50 scientists, led by a prominent epidemiologist, Neil Ferguson, Imperial is treated as a sort of gold standard, its mathematical models feeding directly into government policies."

In a series of tweets, Jeremy C. Young, Assistant Professor of History at Dixie State, summarized what the report says would happen if the U.S. does absolutely nothing. That is, if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course. The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation... Here's what would happen:

Quote

80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself. It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die. How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust. Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.

The Imperial College then ran the numbers for what would happen if countries assumed a "mitigation" strategy and "suppression" strategy. You can read the full summarized breakdown of what happens in each scenario below, but basically the mitigation strategy flattens the curve with an actual death toll at around two million deaths while the suppression strategy has the death rate in the U.S. peaking at 3 weeks with only a few thousand deaths.

[EskeRahn 5,460]

https://xkcd.com/2281/

[sequestris 710]

On 3/18/2020 at 9:05 AM, silversolver said:

If it makes you feel better, he lives in the UK, not China, although he is of Chinese descent. :)

Be well, and thanks for all the warm wishes. I have said many times that I believe the fears are very much greater than the actual danger. Your mother is definitely in the age group that needs to be very cautious, but fear is not helpful....it undermines the immune system, and causes us to think less rationally than we otherwise would. Breathe deeply, and think positively, and the world becomes a better place.

I didn't know that and it does make me feel better, but still not good.
He is, however, in a better predicament being NOT in the US as presently we have the highest cases of any county.

[sequestris 710]

On 3/18/2020 at 8:43 AM, sequestris said:

I worry every day. I worry about my 85 year old mother who is in a hotel in Cali because we are too scared for her to go to 3 airports to come home to Chicago. I worry about staying healthy so I can be there for my family. I worry that people in this country can't just keep their asses home. NOT be a part of the problem.
 

As an update, I chartered a private jet for my mom.
She is back home in the Chicago suburbs, safely tucked into her house 3 blocks away from me,
Safe and sound.

[Stucadoor2 31]

I started as a cook in institutions some 25 years ago and I remember the introduction of the new health code in kitchens. No more fresh soup, desert, or local vegetables, but all industrial produced/processed half products.

in 25 years our lives have changed dramatically from dirt which enhance the immune system to a sterile environment in which we turned in to weak helpless beings with a depraved immune system.

[Rob. S. 1,661]

16 hours ago, Stucadoor2 said:

I started as a cook in institutions some 25 years ago and I remember the introduction of the new health code in kitchens. No more fresh soup, desert, or local vegetables, but all industrial produced/processed half products.

in 25 years our lives have changed dramatically from dirt which enhance the immune system to a sterile environment in which we turned in to weak helpless beings with a depraved immune system.

Sorry, and no, that's just dangerous semi-knowledge, and it has nothing to do with the new coronavirus whatsoever. On the contrary, the new coronavirus became the threat it now is because of far too little hygiene on the Chinese wet markets, where living wild animals of lots of different species are crowded together, giving viruses a chance to jump between species which never would come close to each other in nature, which is exactly what happened now, with bats being the original carriers, sold on wet markets because there is demand for them in rural cooking. And Chinese rural households aren't exactly places where you would expect an abundance of sterility, either! 

Of course medical science does think that more children playing in the dirt used to make people's immune systems stronger in past times, but, for one, that's children, not grown-ups whose immune systems are now what they are, and, for another, those times were already "past times" 25 years ago, they were already "past times" even 50 years ago in most western industrial nations. I'm 55 now, and my time as a child already was a time when disinfectants were seen daily in the ads on every TV screen, and every mother who didn't disinfect everything was made a bad mother for endangering their precious children. Yes, that was a problem and continues to be one (although where I live I actually can't see things being as bad anymore as they used to be in my childhood), but it is a completely different matter.

Oh, and another thing – not every kitchen dropped fresh food for shrink-wrapped convenience food (which, by the way, doesn't need to be bad, either), during the last 25 years.  

Edited March 29, 2020 by Rob. S.

[silversolver 849]

I was going to drop the subject, but here we go again....one thing that I find completely and utterly disgusting is that in all of the news discussion, and all of the chatter everywhere, I had heard exactly NOTHING about wellness or nutrition, and how it can help people be better prepared to fight pathogens, until @Stucadoor2 mentioned it. NOBODY has said to take vitamins, C or otherwise. NOBODY has said to eat fresh vegetables and quality meats, both of which help the immune system. NOBODY has said to lay off alcohol or sugar, even though those are immunosuppressive. Nobody has suggested exercise, other than as a way to fight boredom by walking the dog. I think I've heard a few whining about tobacco usage, but that's it! NO other mention of wellness at all. We are a bunch of processed-food-eating, booze-swilling, sugar-chugging, fat, malnourished slobs in Western countries, so it should come as no surprise that an unfamiliar pathogen catches a lot of us with slack immune systems poorly prepared to respond to it.

Even now, it's not too late to do some things. Eat well NOW. Take vitamins NOW. Get off your duff and get some exercise NOW. While almost everyone is waiting for the drug pushers to save them, the solution for most people is at the supermarket.  Do what you can to get healthier NOW and you can still reduce your odds of becoming a statistic. It will amaze you how much better you'll feel, too, and you may never wish to go back to your previous self.

/rant off LOL

[Rob. S. 1,661]

11 hours ago, silversolver said:

heard exactly NOTHING about wellness or nutrition, and how it can help people be better prepared to fight pathogens

I agree! But that could perhaps be because it is considered general knowledge in this day and age. The old saying "an apple a day keeps the doctor away" has, of course, still a lot of truth in it.

Then again, there are pathogens which don't give a damn how well you've eaten and exercised and whatnot; when they enter your system, you'll get sick. Your immune system, of course, still has a word to say about how quick (if at all) you'll recover...

Edited March 30, 2020 by Rob. S.

[EskeRahn 5,460]

32 minutes ago, Rob. S. said:

The old saying "an apple a day keeps the doctor away" has, of course, still a lot of truth in it.

You really should not throw apples after people, doctors or not.... 😇

[david 929]

17 hours ago, EskeRahn said:

You really should not throw apples after people, doctors or not.... 😇

Not even politicians? 😇

[EskeRahn 5,460]

4 hours ago, david said:

Not even politicians? 😇

....waste of apples... 😇

[glic 8]

On 3/29/2020 at 9:51 PM, silversolver said:

I was going to drop the subject, but here we go again....one thing that I find completely and utterly disgusting is that in all of the news discussion, and all of the chatter everywhere, I had heard exactly NOTHING about wellness or nutrition, and how it can help people be better prepared to fight pathogens, until @Stucadoor2 mentioned it. NOBODY has said to take vitamins, C or otherwise. NOBODY has said to eat fresh vegetables and quality meats, both of which help the immune system. NOBODY has said to lay off alcohol or sugar, even though those are immunosuppressive. Nobody has suggested exercise, other than as a way to fight boredom by walking the dog. I think I've heard a few whining about tobacco usage, but that's it! NO other mention of wellness at all. We are a bunch of processed-food-eating, booze-swilling, sugar-chugging, fat, malnourished slobs in Western countries, so it should come as no surprise that an unfamiliar pathogen catches a lot of us with slack immune systems poorly prepared to respond to it.

Even now, it's not too late to do some things. Eat well NOW. Take vitamins NOW. Get off your duff and get some exercise NOW. While almost everyone is waiting for the drug pushers to save them, the solution for most people is at the supermarket.  Do what you can to get healthier NOW and you can still reduce your odds of becoming a statistic. It will amaze you how much better you'll feel, too, and you may never wish to go back to your previous self.

/rant off LOL

There is so much misinformation flying around... and too much attention on this virus, like there are no other diseases to worry about.

One of the solutions suggested for battling covid is about holding back immunity system, as it does a lot of damage while aggressively defending against virus. It is not always virus, that is killing organism, but reaction of organism, when it sends all the defenders, and their bodies clog the system and organism dies because of that.

Hard Alcohol(not wines, beer or cider) has been part of medicine for centuries. Most probably it creates distraction for organism, when fighting virus - mostly for above mentioned reasons to weaken reaction of too aggressive immunity counterattacks. For me hot spirit based drink with tea has been solution for pneumonia fix, after visiting my home country, where flu season has always been stronger, than in Western countries. Not saying, that it can work with covid - it is here as an example, that spirit works as medicine, and initially it was medicine because it suppresses aggressive immunity system. Smoking was sacred ritual for American natives  - apparently all things used excessively will do harm to anyone.

Vitamin C is damaging organism because of oxidizing processes - there is chance to take them too much and much better option would be just sticking to eating greens(or drinking fresh blood, like some Arctic people were doing with no access to greens). Lack of Vitamin C is not something that everyone should be worried about IMO.

D vitamin intake(and ultraviolet light from Sun) would be more important - just by opening windows, if walk is not possibility - not many people have dogs to go out and not be questioned by police

There is plenty of awareness for healthy food in Western countries - the most unhealthy eaters are always people who do not earn enough have to spend money on other things too, not only on food. And IMO Westerners eat much healthier food, than people who can't afford food. Healthy food is not cheap - however, this has nothing to do with the fact, that many old people in West(we are of yet to understand if any data that came from China are real) are dying from this disease, and they in most cases are more aware about food eating habits, than newer generations. IMO, eating habbits is not the thing, that will change the fact, that many people are living and literaly shitting on each others heads, living in unhealthy crowded cities - rivers in cities usually stinks, as they are used for canalization. As for fast-processed food - not all of it is bad - ingredients sometimes are much better than what you can buy in your shop, but cooking in oil is bad, even if unheated naturally processed olive oil is healthy, when consumed unheated.

The most important thing is not to panic - this pandemic will pass. Some people will pass away(pardon my dark pun, but laughter and not being in stress is important for health). Pandemic probably will pass sooner, than working vaccines will be a thing. Anyway - it would be much healthier to think, that in 2021 for most people covid would not be something that they will think about. I'm not reffering, that there might be other problems in 2021, but that the covid hardly will be an issue, that will stay for years to come.

 

Always laugh when you can. It is cheap medicine. — Lord Byron

Edited March 31, 2020 by glic

[Rob. S. 1,661]

In Germany there was an interesting report [heise.de, German] following the 2007 LÜKEX exercise ("Länderübergreifende Krisenmanagement Exercise"), a staff framework exercise in which supply chain communication was tested with different scenarios. LÜKEX is repeated every few years with changing settings. The 2007 setting was "influenza pandemic". Roughly 3000 people took part in the tabletop exercise.

"In the most aggressive of three possible scenarios that the Robert Koch Institute set at the time, 21 million people were expected to be ill and the total lethality to exceed 170,000 deaths. At the time, it was nicely described as 'we practice influenza'. The futurologist [Gerhard Piper, who wrote an article in 2007 - Rob S.] did not mince his words: 'The dramatic consequences go far beyond the mere number of dead and sick. The hospitals themselves would become centres of infection. Since the equipment of the hospitals with NBC protective suits is completely inadequate and an effective vaccine would only be available weeks after the beginning of the pandemic, the doctors and nurses could reserve some of their hospital beds for themselves right away. The high level of sick leave would lead to a collapse in the supply of antiviral drugs, i.e. the sick could no longer be treated medically. The fears of those who are not yet ill would be discharged in a shopping frenzy. This would not only lead to a shortage of everyday goods; in particular, the security authorities expect a shortage of specific products (disinfectants, over-the-counter medicines, personal NBC protection equipment, etc.).'"

It's interesting to see how much of that now turned reality at least in some countries, and while in some including heavily affected Italy things seem to be slowly getting better as more people recover than individuals become newly infected, others have still to reach the peak of the pandemic, most importantly the USA, but also Netherlands and the UK – those countries which did not introduce and enforce sensible containment measures early enough. 

And in Germany, where there's hope that most of it could already be over, we might have got off that lightly just because at least some of the most important measures were taken rather early, and because this is a pandemic that mostly comes with only mild symptoms, so there were not many long sick leaves. If the disease would have been even just slightly more aggressive and harmful, things might have been a lot worse, because nothing much changed since 2007 regarding things like the equipment of the hospitals, as the privatisation and the tightening of the funding of the health care system had only continued further.

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by Rob. S.

[wave-rider 9]

Any signs for insolvence of Fxtec, because of covid19 and the production issues before?

Edited April 13, 2020 by wave-rider