[Poll] Do you have a Pro1?

[enPfzr4v 239]

Just wondering how many of us actually have the device we're here to talk about, now that it's almost Christmas.

[KingOfTerrible 69]

I'm hoping for a Christmas Miracle.  Is there a real Santa Claus?  Does anyone in the USA have one yet?

Edited December 23, 2019 by KingOfTerrible

[silversolver 849]

21 minutes ago, KingOfTerrible said:

I'm hoping for a Christmas Miracle.  Is there a real Santa Claus?  Does anyone in the USA have one yet?

A number of people in the US do have one. @sequestris had one but now one of her friends has it, @Hook has one IIRC.....most of us everywhere are still waiting, but some have made it to the US. Actually I know from maintaining the network compatibility list that at least 2 if not 3 more are documented to be in the US, but can't remember who has them.

[MickH 211]

Wow! 😧

Very surprised at the results so far.

I wasn't expecting the pre-orders to be that low. Was expecting them to be as near as level pegging.

[EskeRahn 5,460]

1 minute ago, MickH said:

Wow! 😧

Very surprised at the results so far.

I wasn't expecting the pre-orders to be that low. Was expecting them to be as near as level pegging.

...Or the numbers could reflect that this is the umpteenth poll/thread reflecting the understandable impatience for those that unfortunately have not got it yet.

[Jordi 72]

This also shows that to date, they have supplied less than a quarter of all orders (9 vs 42 (9+33)).

[Doktor Oswaldo 904]

9 minutes ago, Jordi said:

This also shows that to date, they have supplied less than a quarter of all orders (9 vs 42 (9+33)).

This poll is not representative whatsoever, it is not wise to make conclusions based on this

[enPfzr4v 239]

1 hour ago, Doktor Oswaldo said:

This poll is not representative whatsoever, it is not wise to make conclusions based on this

Why not? Got any other data to share? Fxtec implied that they haven't delivered more than half of the pre orders yet, so this matches with that.

[Rob. S. 1,661]

19 minutes ago, abielins said:

Why not?

Because a small, random number of cases is never representative for a much larger total. One of the fundamentals of statistics (which, if more widely known and applied, could theoretically prevent a massive amount of prejudice in this world, by the way)...

In our case we simply don't know how many of the pre-orderers who never came here in the first place got their phones and how many didn't. It could easily be that within that group the proportion of those who got their devices is significantly larger. But maybe it isn't. We simply cannot know. 

Edited December 24, 2019 by Rob. S.

[Doktor Oswaldo 904]

18 minutes ago, abielins said:

Why not? Got any other data to share? Fxtec implied that they haven't delivered more than half of the pre orders yet, so this matches with that.

Only because we have no other data does not mean this data is true or better than no data at all...

[enPfzr4v 239]

56 minutes ago, Rob. S. said:

a small, random number of cases is never representative for a much larger total

I would disagree. A sample of data does give you a good representation for a larger data set. This poll, for example, shows that the number of forum members that have the device have roughly doubled in the last month. This would align with Fxtec saying they are delivering 1/10 of pre-orders every batch, and the assumption that the 3rd batch was delivered in December.

[EskeRahn 5,460]

1 hour ago, abielins said:

I would disagree. A sample of data does give you a good representation for a larger data set. This poll, for example, shows that the number of forum members that have the device have roughly doubled in the last month. This would align with Fxtec saying they are delivering 1/10 of pre-orders every batch, and the assumption that the 3rd batch was delivered in December.

It is very fundamental statistics, that one can not draw conclusions from a very small dataset....

Theory 1, all the people that got it voted, and only the few of the pre-orders.

Theory 2. all the waiting pre-orders have voted, an only a few of those that got the device.

Both of these wild theories are HIGHLY unlikely, but the numbers could back either of them. But of course does not make either of them true...

[enPfzr4v 239]

1 minute ago, EskeRahn said:

It is very fundamental statistics, that one can not draw conclusions from a very small dataset....

50+ responses for a group of fewer than 1000 is pretty great.

[EskeRahn 5,460]

1 minute ago, abielins said:

50+ responses for a group of fewer than 1000 is pretty great.

That only holds IF (and that is a HUGE if here!!!) the subset is representative of the population in question. I'm not going to give you a math course here, look elsewhere.

[netman 1,424]

13 minutes ago, EskeRahn said:

That only holds IF (and that is a HUGE if here!!!) the subset is representative of the population in question. I'm not going to give you a math course here, look elsewhere.

We can still draw the conclusion we are a jolly bunch of pollclickers :).

[Rob. S. 1,661]

15 minutes ago, abielins said:

50+ responses for a group of fewer than 1000 is pretty great.

To put it more politely than Eske 😉 – "representative" is not about the size of the sample, it is about the selection of the sample. A random subset is never representative and therefore does not allow to extrapolate observations onto the whole...

[EskeRahn 5,460]

35 minutes ago, Rob. S. said:

To put it more politely than Eske 😉 – "representative" is not about the size of the sample, it is about the selection of the sample. A random subset is never representative and therefore does not allow to extrapolate observations onto the whole...

Yes could have put it more politely, But I have always been a bad teacher that hated to repeat the same thing, that was already said (by my self or others)

The magic is in the word "random", as it in many contexts are seen as "any", but not in math. IF we had picked a truely random set of all members, and they ALL had answered THEN we could have used it as representative.

It is like an election poll, it is NOT a simple task. e.g. If you take an exit poll at 11 am, it is very likely to have an overweight of those that (for what ever reason) are not busy at that time of the day, so you would need some complex adjustments to compensate for that.

[Zamasu 258]

1 hour ago, abielins said:

50+ responses for a group of fewer than 1000 is pretty great.

Still far too low to actually say anything. To accurately estimate the results with smaller groups requires relatively larger sample sizes. And the results are very biased, a specific group of people visits here.
The results are fun, but don't really tell anything aside from maybe that more people didn't get the phone then people who did get the phone.

[mcdinner 375]

5 hours ago, abielins said:

50+ responses for a group of fewer than 1000 is pretty great.

statistically irrelevant numbers and missing parameters for a conclusion

Edited December 24, 2019 by mcdinner

[Raksura 270]

6 hours ago, abielins said:

50+ responses for a group of fewer than 1000 is pretty great.

Not that it matters considering all the reasons explained in the above posts, but since I am also into making guesses based on very incomplete data to estimate when we're likely to get a Pro1, here's the actual group size at the time of writing this post: 2,656. You can find it here.

Edited December 24, 2019 by Raksura

[SchattengestaIt 559]

Apart from the number of participants being way too low, I could imagine that many people having gotten their phone wouldn't check he forum. Imagine if 100 people in this forum got the phone but only 15 still check the forum.

The conclusion would be all over the place and there's no way for us of getting these people to this forum.

[divstar 164]

Another thing is, that those who actually got their device, are less likely to vote - simply because they are busy, while those waiting for one are more likely to vote as they are rather unsatisfied with the status quo.

To give you a plastic example: I am busy with Christmas, family and my pro1 (in that order), so I did not feel like voting, because the poll does not really help.

[anonim001 105]

"well technically yes, but actually no"

does a faulty one count?

[Zamasu 258]

7 hours ago, SchattengestaIt said:

Apart from the number of participants being way too low, I could imagine that many people having gotten their phone wouldn't check he forum. Imagine if 100 people in this forum got the phone but only 15 still check the forum.

The conclusion would be all over the place and there's no way for us of getting these people to this forum.

I don't know about that. If I'd get the device, I think I'd still be checking the forum for at least a little while. It sounds like the software isn't perfect, and there are some tips and tricks that will help the user experience on here. And then there's things like the Lineage OS build that's posted on here, and app recommendations, or best ways to open the keyboard. So less might browse here because they don't need to keep up to date on the order process, but more might be here to get tips and tricks.

So, I can see it definitely being possible that overall less people with phones browse here, but I can't quantify if it's less or more.

[enPfzr4v 239]

2 hours ago, anonim001 said:

"well technically yes, but actually no"

does a faulty one count?

Yes I think it should