On the pre-production status

[Erik 1,487]

From now on we will use the thread below for news. This one is for commenting.

 

[glumreaper 144]

On 11/11/2019 at 3:07 PM, Doktor Oswaldo said:

From TMO:

APAC users will likely get tracking code tomorrow (once final dispatch is made) US/EU user will likely* to receive code on Wednesday

A cynical person might say that the update from Erik is a distraction from the apparent lack of any of the tracking numbers that Liangchen suggested on Monday were "likely" by today.

 

Good thing there are no cynical people on this forum.

[Hook 3,017]

2 minutes ago, glumreaper said:

A cynical person might say that the update from Erik is a distraction from the apparent lack of any of the tracking numbers that Liangchen suggested on Monday were "likely" by today.

 

Good thing there are no cynical people on this forum.

You conveniently left off, from the same message: " *Should happen but not definitely, if not then Thursday"

It's noon Wed where I am. Let's wait and see. Sheesh. 🙄

[EskeRahn 5,459]

4 minutes ago, Hook said:

You conveniently left off, from the same message: " *Should happen but not definitely, if not then Thursday"

It's noon Wed where I am. Let's wait and see. Sheesh. 🙄

You beat me to it! (wrote about the same, but deleted it)

[scy 10]

Chen just wrote on Twitter:

Quote

Confirmed first stock arrived safely in the UK. Forward shipment tomorrow with tracking code! Can't wait!

 

[Zamasu 258]

These quotes come from

Quote

the first batch has been fulfilled and is on it's way to the customers that have been emailed, even if there's no tracking yet - it's coming.

This is contradictory, you can't have the orders be on the way to customers, and also have it be fulfilled. That's not what fulfilled means. I'm guessing it's meant that they're ready to ship towards customers from whatever warehouse they're in now.

Quote

We expect everyone from the first batch will have their devices delivered late this week to early-next week.

Let's take these estimations and calculate how many days it takes to get from the factory, to customers. The first batch was sent out from factories on the 29th of October. 29th of October to the 14th of November (earliest what I'd call of "late this week"), is 16 days. However, since holidays and weekends are a big problem, you should also look at the time it took without those, which would be 12 workdays. Now for the latest possibility, 29th of October to the 19th of November (I'd say Wednesday is mid, so no longer early). That would be 21 days. And for the workdays it's 15 workdays.

Quote

For those who haven't yet received a "stock assigned" notice, another batch is leaving the factory by the end of this week, but as we previously learnt, warehouse stock rotations and customs can take a while, so we should have customers from the 2nd batch receive their devices in late-November

This is the interesting part of the post, because it doesn't jive with how long the first batch took. There's not a lot of time left in this week, and end of this week I'd assume to be Friday, but let's say it's tomorrow, the 14th of November.
If you add 16 days (best case scenario with weekends included) that would mean second batch gets the phones on the 30th of November.
If you add 12 workdays (best case scenario without weekends) that would mean second batch gets the phones on the 2nd of December.
If you add 21 days (worst case scenario with weekends included) that would mean second batch gets the phones on the 5th of December.
if you add 15 workdays (worst case scenario without weekends) that would mean second batch gets the phones also on the 5th of December.

So, late-November only works if you say that to mean the absolute last day of November, in the best case, if you ignore weekends which is said to be one of the issues. Or if you'd expect shipment would go faster, because of customs maybe, but in that case I think any such reason would've been mentioned. A better estimation is anywhere between the 2nd of December to the 5th of December, so the first week of December.

Quote

all pre-orders will be fulfilled in advance before the 24th of December.

This seems like more and more to be the best estimation for any pre-order that's not the first batch.

Quote

I will post news in the 1st post here from now on.

Maybe it's better to just post in that thread (not this one) instead of editing the first post. I don't know how it shows up on the frontpage if a post is edited, people might miss it.

Quote

A small informal update for you. As you should be aware by now, my updates do not represent what PR might have to say, but I'll give you the latest and best to my knowledge.

Nice disclaimer, but aside from these kind of updates we've only had those two video updates from ages ago. First one (from the 4th of October) said "We will start shipping to you from the 29th of October.", no distinction between batches, which makes it seem like people already got their tracking codes, and people from for example the second batch should expect their tracking codes any day now. The second video (from the 30th of October) said "So today I'm at the factory and I just want to make sure ... and to deliver to you by this week" (subtitles say "Today I'm at the factory and I want to make sure ... and ready to deliver to you by this week"). it also said "So hopefully by this week this will be on the way to your home" (subtitles say "So hopefully by this week this will be on it's way to your home!").

Absolutely no information about which batch you might be in, just 1 implication that it might only be sent out not delivered in week 44, no indication that the second batch would take half a month, no indication that shipping would take 3 weeks. If you just look at those, I see plenty of reason to have expected the phone to have arrived 2 weeks ago for everybody. If I'd be expecting something to arrive, and then hear nothing for 2 weeks, I'd be worrying if something went wrong with shipping.

My point is that this wait is only barely endurable because of these "unofficial" updates which have since informed me that those videos are wrong except in a very specific way. So people will take these updates, and will use them as statements. You can't just try and appease people by posting these updates, give out information, but then append that they're not actually updates and that Fxtec can't be held to them. It's trying to have your cake and eat it too by not committing to any hard dates but still giving them.

I do appreciate the effort in trying to update though, even if it doesn't actually bring any real new information aside from a implicit delay. Considering Chen's tweet just now, it does seem like things are mostly on-track per the latest estimations, and we'll see tracking codes tomorrow, maybe Friday if people are late in posting their codes.

[Zamasu 258]

27 minutes ago, glumreaper said:

A cynical person might say that the update from Erik is a distraction from the apparent lack of any of the tracking numbers that Liangchen suggested on Monday were "likely" by today.

 

Good thing there are no cynical people on this forum.

Like others have already said, you left out the important part. A cynical person would've used Thursday as the day tracking codes would arrive anyway. I'd say the lack of APAC shipping codes is more weird, but even then that's supposedly only a small part, and I've only seen 1 person on here who said they were in the first batch and would also be APAC. And they haven't posted since. So not even that weird honestly.

[Hook 3,017]

9 minutes ago, Zamasu said:

These quotes come from

This is contradictory, you can't have the orders be on the way to customers, and also have it be fulfilled. That's not what fulfilled means. I'm guessing it's meant that they're ready to ship towards customers from whatever warehouse they're in now.

Let's take these estimations and calculate how many days it takes to get from the factory, to customers. The first batch was sent out from factories on the 29th of October. 29th of October to the 14th of November (earliest what I'd call of "late this week"), is 16 days. However, since holidays and weekends are a big problem, you should also look at the time it took without those, which would be 12 workdays. Now for the latest possibility, 29th of October to the 19th of November (I'd say Wednesday is mid, so no longer early). That would be 21 days. And for the workdays it's 15 workdays.

This is the interesting part of the post, because it doesn't jive with how long the first batch took. There's not a lot of time left in this week, and end of this week I'd assume to be Friday, but let's say it's tomorrow, the 14th of November.
If you add 16 days (best case scenario with weekends included) that would mean second batch gets the phones on the 30th of November.
If you add 12 workdays (best case scenario without weekends) that would mean second batch gets the phones on the 2nd of December.
If you add 21 days (worst case scenario with weekends included) that would mean second batch gets the phones on the 5th of December.
if you add 15 workdays (worst case scenario without weekends) that would mean second batch gets the phones also on the 5th of December.

So, late-November only works if you say that to mean the absolute last day of November, in the best case, if you ignore weekends which is said to be one of the issues. Or if you'd expect shipment would go faster, because of customs maybe, but in that case I think any such reason would've been mentioned. A better estimation is anywhere between the 2nd of December to the 5th of December, so the first week of December.

This seems like more and more to be the best estimation for any pre-order that's not the first batch.

Maybe it's better to just post in that thread (not this one) instead of editing the first post. I don't know how it shows up on the frontpage if a post is edited, people might miss it.

Nice disclaimer, but aside from these kind of updates we've only had those two video updates from ages ago. First one (from the 4th of October) said "We will start shipping to you from the 29th of October.", no distinction between batches, which makes it seem like people already got their tracking codes, and people from for example the second batch should expect their tracking codes any day now. The second video (from the 30th of October) said "So today I'm at the factory and I just want to make sure ... and to deliver to you by this week" (subtitles say "Today I'm at the factory and I want to make sure ... and ready to deliver to you by this week"). it also said "So hopefully by this week this will be on the way to your home" (subtitles say "So hopefully by this week this will be on it's way to your home!").

Absolutely no information about which batch you might be in, just 1 implication that it might only be sent out not delivered in week 44, no indication that the second batch would take half a month, no indication that shipping would take 3 weeks. If you just look at those, I see plenty of reason to have expected the phone to have arrived 2 weeks ago for everybody. If I'd be expecting something to arrive, and then hear nothing for 2 weeks, I'd be worrying if something went wrong with shipping.

My point is that this wait is only barely endurable because of these "unofficial" updates which have since informed me that those videos are wrong except in a very specific way. So people will take these updates, and will use them as statements. You can't just try and appease people by posting these updates, give out information, but then append that they're not actually updates and that Fxtec can't be held to them. It's trying to have your cake and eat it too by not committing to any hard dates but still giving them.

I do appreciate the effort in trying to update though, even if it doesn't actually bring any real new information aside from a implicit delay. Considering Chen's tweet just now, it does seem like things are mostly on-track per the latest estimations, and we'll see tracking codes tomorrow, maybe Friday if people are late in posting their codes.

This is actually a well-reasoned analysis. 

I would add the possibility of one other factor-- that the second and future batches might go faster simply because many logistics procedures and problems were worked through with the first batch.  So, having seen the product already, customs might be smoother, the logistics in shipping to warehouses has been ironed out, etc.  Like most things, guesses on my part.  I don't know that that is true and I don't have enough experience in logistics to know for sure.  Just a thought.

[Zamasu 258]

28 minutes ago, Hook said:

This is actually a well-reasoned analysis. 

I would add the possibility of one other factor-- that the second and future batches might go faster simply because many logistics procedures and problems were worked through with the first batch.  So, having seen the product already, customs might be smoother, the logistics in shipping to warehouses has been ironed out, etc.  Like most things, guesses on my part.  I don't know that that is true and I don't have enough experience in logistics to know for sure.  Just a thought.

There's a chance overall shipment might be faster for a lot of reasons, but I don't think it's smart to bank on that, and I don't see it being a big chance. It's also a bigger batch, so that might delay things more. But yes, second batch is not guaranteed to come early December, it might come late November. I just think the chances of the second batch arriving in November just isn't significant enough.

[robert.prior1985 97]

I emailed the team just before @Erik put his statement up and when I got a reply for once is was not vague. It was very 'By Christmas your phone will be with you.' no longer 'we hope', 'we expect', 'we are aiming for'. And with Chen's recent Tweet.... Well my thumbs are itching for a great device!

To be the annoying optimist... I think we are getting phones soon Ladies and Gents! *Happy Dances*

[Tim6263 134]

Maybe well reasoned ... but actually no-one can be sure, so really, we just have to wait & hope ... Hope that F(x)tec don't end up going back on this from Sept. ...

[Craig 1,435]

2 hours ago, Zamasu said:

I've only seen 1 person on here who said they were in the first batch and would also be APAC

I missed that and am curious, who is that?    Didn't know we had an Asia/Pacifc Fist Batcher posting anywhere...

[Zamasu 258]

49 minutes ago, Craig said:

I missed that and am curious, who is that?    Didn't know we had an Asia/Pacifc Fist Batcher posting anywhere...

I'd rather not post that, somehow that doesn't feel comfortable. They were from Australia though. There aren't that many that posted on here from the first batch honestly.

[SchattengestaIt 559]

2 hours ago, robert.prior1985 said:

I emailed the team just before @Erik put his statement up and when I got a reply for once is was not vague. It was very 'By Christmas your phone will be with you.' no longer 'we hope', 'we expect', 'we are aiming for'. And with Chen's recent Tweet.... Well my thumbs are itching for a great device!

To be the annoying optimist... I think we are getting phones soon Ladies and Gents! *Happy Dances*

They told me that I'll definitely get my device (regular order) by end of November. Also they I don't blame them, but those definite answers don't mean anything.

Either they only get limited information (wouldn't be new) or their plans don't work out as planned. Maybe both.

I'm very optimistic to get my phone before christmas as well, but others here were as well - about shipping by the end of summer.

 

3 hours ago, Zamasu said:

lots of text

I've read here that customs only apply once if you ship the same item multiple times, so shipments should be much faster next time. Correct me if I'm wrong with that.

[enPfzr4v 239]

8 minutes ago, SchattengestaIt said:

I've read here that customs only apply once if you ship the same item multiple times, so shipments should be much faster next time. Correct me if I'm wrong with that.

You are wrong about that, sorry 😞

[Zamasu 258]

2 minutes ago, SchattengestaIt said:

I've read here that customs only apply once if you ship the same item multiple times, so shipments should be much faster next time. Correct me if I'm wrong with that.

No idea, I don't have enough experience with importing newly engineered products. I've only dealt with "consumer" customs, so products that already exist, but all seem to take about the same time. I've only read on here that the next times should take less time, because they wouldn't need to go through all the hopes again or something. But it makes more sense to me that that would happen earlier via some sort of certification. But again, this is new to me.

[vlycop 38]

So, I already cancelled, take this as you want ... BUT

if any of you can find back the official sentence saying that money will only be taken before shipping, All the people who are scared to not receive a device and not in the first batch should legally be able to request a refund while keeping the order. They will then be redebited when there device actualy ship. 

I mean, all of the seconde wave device never should have been payed, worst for the third one.

But maybe this was also urban legend, but never written on the website, i don't remember where i saw it. i'm also surprise noone have written about that.

[_DW_ 628]

7 minutes ago, vlycop said:

So, I already cancelled, take this as you want ... BUT

if any of you can find back the official sentence saying that money will only be taken before shipping, All the people who are scared to not receive a device and not in the first batch should legally be able to request a refund while keeping the order. They will then be redebited when there device actualy ship. 

I mean, all of the seconde wave device never should have been payed, worst for the third one.

But maybe this was also urban legend, but never written on the website, i don't remember where i saw it. i'm also surprise noone have written about that.

It was on the website on pre-order page.

[enPfzr4v 239]

6 minutes ago, _DW_ said:

It was on the website on pre-order page.

 

15 minutes ago, vlycop said:

if any of you can find back the official sentence saying that money will only be taken before shipping,

Not quite. It said that they would ask for payment details 2-3 weeks prior to shipping:

[Hook 3,017]

Also, it was clear in the email of July 31st telling us that it was time to pay that the above was no longer in force.

"We are beginning the manufacturing in the next few weeks with estimated first shipping to pre-order customers during the  2nd week of September."

Thus, before you paid you were told it would be at least 6 weeks and that was only an estimate.

[vlycop 38]

2 minutes ago, Hook said:

Also, it was clear in the email of July 31st telling us that it was time to pay that the above was no longer in force.

"We are beginning the manufacturing in the next few weeks with estimated first shipping to pre-order customers during the  2nd week of September."

Thus, before you paid you were told it would be at least 6 weeks and that was only an estimate.

i dont think this should be able to go against the original statement, but as abielins said, i had the wrong reading 😉

[Siani_8 105]

16 minutes ago, abielins said:

 

Not quite. It said that they would ask for payment details 2-3 weeks prior to shipping:

That's what I remember seeing aa well and although, at the time, they expected to ship in July, it does NOT say anything about only pre-orders prior to July would receive the headphones and case.  Kind of a weak move to throw that date out there later when in all actuality, every pre-order should get both, especially since all the delays in my opinion. 

[vlycop 38]

6 minutes ago, Siani_8 said:

every pre-order should get both,

I try to fight for that earlyer, but I gived up when case where cancelled

[B.X 19]

5 hours ago, Hook said:

I would add the possibility of one other factor--

I propose an additional factor--  F(x)tec likely started with an Angel investor who got them to the point of being able to take pre-orders.  The proven customer interest let them get a loan for development.  That short term high interest loan started coming due in early August and F(x)tec has probably been making payments with the money collected from buyers.  Development continued and expenses continued until everything was ready to go, but the money probably ran out.  They scraped together a few more orders (the current rate is about 3 to 5 per day) and are using that money to pay the factory to trickle out a few phones but unless orders continue there will be no money to pay the factory to make the phones that customers already paid for.

So rather than complain about the delays, we need to help F(x)tec drum up business so that payments on new orders can go directly to building phones.  Time is critical because they have to catch up before the next loan installment is due.

Each new order probably represents about TWO phones being shipped to already paid customers so we need to get the order count up there and let F(x)tec catch up!! 

The product is finished, lets do our part to make it a success.  Talk about it in your IRL social groups, post your excitement in phone sites and complain to editors if they don't have anything about the phone for you to up-vote.  Tweet about it, IRC about it, Instagram about it, blog about it, if you must even say something on Facebook.  Tell the world that there is a slider phone option that is done and starting to ship. 

Another 500 paid orders can make all the difference so lets make that happen!

[EskeRahn 5,459]

8 hours ago, B.X said:

I propose an additional factor--  F(x)tec likely started with an Angel investor who got them to the point of being able to take pre-orders.  The proven customer interest let them get a loan for development.  That short term high interest loan started coming due in early August and F(x)tec has probably been making payments with the money collected from buyers.  Development continued and expenses continued until everything was ready to go, but the money probably ran out.  They scraped together a few more orders (the current rate is about 3 to 5 per day) and are using that money to pay the factory to trickle out a few phones but unless orders continue there will be no money to pay the factory to make the phones that customers already paid for.

So rather than complain about the delays, we need to help F(x)tec drum up business so that payments on new orders can go directly to building phones.  Time is critical because they have to catch up before the next loan installment is due.

Each new order probably represents about TWO phones being shipped to already paid customers so we need to get the order count up there and let F(x)tec catch up!! 

The product is finished, lets do our part to make it a success.  Talk about it in your IRL social groups, post your excitement in phone sites and complain to editors if they don't have anything about the phone for you to up-vote.  Tweet about it, IRC about it, Instagram about it, blog about it, if you must even say something on Facebook.  Tell the world that there is a slider phone option that is done and starting to ship. 

Another 500 paid orders can make all the difference so lets make that happen!

I doubt that theory very much. If it was the case it could have delayed the large batches, but hardly the first small one.

...That said, sure every extra order will help the whole project. And I expect people pouring in (relatively speaking) once the first units hit the streets, and we get some more independent feedback.