On the pre-production status

[elvissteinjr 359]

Batch 3 is really weird. It might have been the retailer batch, but at the same time it was said it would cover most IGG QWERTZ orders.
The shipment that was supposed to arrive this week in the UK (very bold to state on a Thursday, didn't work out it seems) might be that one after all. Is this an EU only batch? We would've heard of any phones going out if it wasn't I suppose.

We're still pretty early in the queue. It sounds fair to assume most of the ones early in line are very enthusiastic about getting a keyboard slider and would let us know instead of staying completely silent (so not massive amounts of devices we don't know of). An exception I've found are the Japanese customers, which seem to stay by themselves on Twitter and other social media, but they're not impossible to find either.

[Val 75]

6 minutes ago, ps555 said:

optimistic calculation / speculation

• 50% of the IGG devices delivered (100 devices send out of 200 IGG orders)
• 4% of all preorders delivered (200 devices of 5000 preorders)

pessimistic calc/spec

• 5% of IGG orders (50 IGG devices of 1000 preorders)
• 1% of all preorders delivered (100 devices of 10.000 preorders)

I don't think so. In both scenarios I think that there are more than 200 IGG backers who preordered and paid as soon as they got the email. There were 2-4(X) phones sent to non IGG by mistake, according to fxtec (less than 0.5% of ALL orders - 4th december email), so all the phones were sent to the IGG backers, excluding the ones sent to the resellers. This means that your numbers for preorders couldn't be right.

[Zamasu 258]

40 minutes ago, ps555 said:

about 10.000 oreordered devices with a big impreciseness

I believe that number comes from the order numbers, which doesn't translate directly to "valid" orders that actually are waiting for a phone. There were some educated guesses made with some API, that I think is more along the lines of a couple thousand?

[ps555 22]

@Val:

OK. I have to specify:

I have calculated with 50 - 100 delivered devices for non-IGG-preorders. With the 0,5% info this may be to high.

(and I counted devices not orders, so I count the retailer devices as 40-90 devices not as 2-4 orders)

 

What do you think are the boundary values?

Here is a shorter form for the speculated values

• IGG preordered devices min - max
• IGG delivered devices min - max
• preordered devices min - max (including the IGG)
• total delivered devices min -max (including the IGG)

 

So my values from the last post would be in this short form:

• IGG preordered devices 200 - 1000
• IGG delivered devices 50 - 100
• total preordered devices 5000 - 10000
• total delivered devices 100 - 200

...simply calculated to ranges of 5%-50% of IGG fulfilment and 1% - 4% of total fulfilment.

 

The basis of my speculations are

• highest known serial number for deliverd devices (*)
• some numbers about IGG-backer numbers, I have found in this thread
• some numbers about order numbers and percentage of real preorders/orders from this thread

(*): here I think, that @elvissteinjr is right with the assumption, that there can not be so much people until now, who are not enthusiastic enough to post higher serial numbers in the thread. Do the japanese people have any interesting numbers? (higher serial number...)

 

 

[glumreaper 144]

1 hour ago, ps555 said:

Sorry. I lost the track about the current status of batches and so on. (many messages to read, many things are happening here 🙂 )

It's been a wild ride as ever. Complaints, guesses, speculation, official vagueness. Agreements, disagreements. People riding around on a high horse with no discernible reason nor logic. And of course an astounding interlude involving some online retailers. Fun times.

What there hasn't been, is any further concrete delivery estimate from FXtec for those still waiting. I mean, yes, there's been an official message saying "end of Jan". But we've heard lots of messages like that and so far most have them have failed to be true.

Edited December 21, 2019 by glumreaper

[rtuz2th 29]

Hi Community,

I've been one of those guys just scrolling through the forum everyday but never posted anything, but now this all has become so absurd that I can't remain silent. I backed the IndieGoGo Campaign on 20.05.2017 (Backer #13**), I remember scrolling through the comments everyday to find all 'Miniupdates' that were only posted in the IGG comments. Now, two years later, I find myself still daily scrolling through a forum thread that will hit the 100 pages mark very soon to find all 'Miniupdates' only posted there. I don't wanna start about Twitter, talk.maemo.org and all that stuff. How does it happen to be that within two years nothing has changed about communication? If we just take a look at the Gemini PDA Launch for example - they had a tool built to estimate the production time/arrival of your device (Check their IGG Update from 28.3.2018). I do not expect something like this from FxTec. I know, the Pro1 is probably produced in a way smaller batch than the Gemini was. Damn, I don't even expect reasonable press work from FxTec anymore. But after waiting two years and then realizing there are devices send out to people that just preordered this year without an IGG coupon (referring to sequestris, sadly the original post is not online anymore, she did an edit when her device was sold) is a bit disappointing. Realizing that I could now order this phone from a local retailer and have it shipped to my home tomorrow while I still know nothing about my device from FxTec is very disappointing. I don't wanna get into all this discussions again, mistakes were made, people complained and FxTec apologized. What I want is a different kind of information flow. If you take a look at how sophisticated people are in this forum (remember component sourcing for example, the case/pouch discussions with several people 3D printing case prototypes, the DIY Keyboard Slider,...) I'm sure there would be a community built tool for estimating arrival time within days if FxTec just gave us access to information. Right now everything we do is poking in the dark with different conspiracy theories coming up every day. Leading people to cancel their preorder, which costs FxTec Money they can't spent on good press work (sorry) or increasing factory output.

1 hour ago, ps555 said:

@Val:

OK. I have to specify:

I have calculated with 50 - 100 delivered devices for non-IGG-preorders. With the 0,5% info this may be to high.

(and I counted devices not orders, so I count the retailer devices as 40-90 devices not as 2-4 orders)

 

What do you think are the boundary values?

Here is a shorter form for the speculated values

• IGG preordered devices min - max
• IGG delivered devices min - max
• preordered devices min - max (including the IGG)
• total delivered devices min -max (including the IGG)

 

So my values from the last post would be in this short form:

• IGG preordered devices 200 - 1000
• IGG delivered devices 50 - 100
• total preordered devices 5000 - 10000
• total delivered devices 100 - 200

...simply calculated to ranges of 5%-50% of IGG fulfilment and 1% - 4% of total fulfilment.

 

The basis of my speculations are

• highest known serial number for deliverd devices (*)
• some numbers about IGG-backer numbers, I have found in this thread
• some numbers about order numbers and percentage of real preorders/orders from this thread

(*): here I think, that @elvissteinjr is right with the assumption, that there can not be so much people until now, who are not enthusiastic enough to post higher serial numbers in the thread. Do the japanese people have any interesting numbers? (higher serial number...)

 

 

This great post from ps555 is the most actual and comprehensive summary we have. So, Adrian and Chen, why don't you just give us figures about

How many devices were preordered all in all?
How many devices were sent out yet?
What's the factory output per day/week/whatsoever at the moment?

or tell us why you don't want to tell us. Leaving all the IGG stuff aside this would at least help estimating when to really expect our devices and getting conspiracy theories down. Your support could actually do their job again instead of answering emails like 'When can I expect my device, there was an update promised two weeks ago' all day. We were promised that this is no crowdfunding again, and now I feel like I have payed for the retailers batch while still rocking an absolutely dead Droid4. I paid within 30 minutes, you promised me this (Last Update of the Keyboard Mod Campaign on IGG):

Payment will only being taken when production starts. (Estimated around June – July) You won’t be asked to fill the payment details until then.

Now you got my money since 4 months and I do not even get information? I don't think this is fair. I don't need no friendly email with some nice text in it anymore. I'm very sad that you made me write this post, FxTec. I've always been one of those guys who was a lot about the spiritual support and believing in the project and all that. But it is enough. I just want some figures.

Edited December 21, 2019 by rtuz2th
typo

[ksal95 227]

If you're looking specifically for the mini updates you can go to @Erik's profile and look through his post history.  It's easier than going through the entirety of the production thread.

[rtuz2th 29]

Yeah I know, thank you. But I would miss all the twitter content (I don't use twitter personally) and posts like the one I've quoted above, which is as I said basically the best aggregation of data we have at the moment.

[glumreaper 144]

It's a nice idea, but it'll never happen. I mean FXtec will never give that kind of information. Their campaign for months now has been to give just enough intimation to create a "hold on everyone, they're nearly here" kind of feeling, while the actual delivery dates have been slipping for months, suggesting that behind the scenes there's frantic pedalling going on. 

[SchattengestaIt 559]

@ps555

Devices are getting shipped directly from China currently, so we won't get informed about batches anymore. Looking into the "post here if you..." thread, it seems that people are continuously getting devices.

Erik mentioned 3/10th devices getting shipped soon. He also wrote earlier that 1/10th-1/20th is produced every week, although that estimate didn't seem to be correct.

According to these ("official") numbers and posted photos, my optimistic guess is that all orders could be shipped by the end of february. However, resellers will probably get their devices sooner than that as we have seen this week.

Also, production will sure be ramping up, so it could get faster. But at the same time problems appear that will cost time again.

 

According to numbers, some people did calculations and had lists that mention that only around 1000-2000 preorders are be actual paid (pre)orders. And according to the numbers of people receiving it and being active, that's a plausible amount to me. This doesn't mean that there isn't interest from more customers who prefer to buy it with instant shipping. I wouldn't preorder anything from fxtec again.

So 200-300 devices would have been shipped by now (complete speculation).

I would therefore believe that 2/10ths of all preorders have been shipped by now, I don't think Erik would lie on this number.

 

What we also know is that the shopping site is still wrong (4-6 weeks shipping, written since October 2019) and we don't get any information. This is the main reason why everything heats up like that.

[enPfzr4v 239]

Fxtec is trying to reduce panic, and I understand. I suppose their philosophy is: less information means less to panic about.

[Val 75]

1 hour ago, ps555 said:

With the 0,5% info this may be to high.

This percentage is sure, as sure as it can be any info from fxtec in official emails. 

9 minutes ago, SchattengestaIt said:

So 200-300 devices would have been shipped by now (complete speculation).

Including resellers, maybe.

[Zamasu 258]

1 hour ago, rtuz2th said:

This great post from ps555 is the most actual and comprehensive summary we have.

It also works on some, what I think are incorrect, assumptions. That's a problem with just aggregating a bunch of data, displaying it a certain way can be deceiving. Those order numbers seem incorrect for example.

1 hour ago, rtuz2th said:

How many devices were preordered all in all?
How many devices were sent out yet?
What's the factory output per day/week/whatsoever at the moment?

At best this information would tell you when all pre-orders would be done, not when you could estimate your device. Shipments are supposedly organized by IGG status and payment date, but even that seems to be pretty fuzzy.

Also, I don't think this is something they can just give out. You don't see businesses do something like that often, and I'd assume there are contracts with the factory and stuff that would prohibit that as well. It might also bring to light some things they don't want to be known.

Overall, that's just not going to happen. Same for telling why that's not possible I think. Best I think you can hope for is that their email updates are truthful, and often.

[foxfreejack 60]

4 hours ago, Val said:

...  so all the phones were sent to the IGG backers, ...

Negative. I am among the last to contribute on IGG. I haven't received a message hinting for a stock assigned or being shipped as of now.

[Val 75]

3 minutes ago, foxfreejack said:

Negative. I am among the last to contribute on IGG. I haven't received a message hinting for a stock assigned or being shipped as of now.

:) I was talking about the phones in ps555 guesstimate.

I'm among the first (#26, order id#40) and and no sign of the phone, in any form.

[rtuz2th 29]

3 hours ago, Zamasu said:

At best this information would tell you when all pre-orders would be done, not when you could estimate your device. Shipments are supposedly organized by IGG status and payment date, but even that seems to be pretty fuzzy.

Yeah, but thats pretty much all I hope for by now, it would be enough to have an estimate for the latest point my device arrives here.

 

3 hours ago, Zamasu said:

Also, I don't think this is something they can just give out. You don't see businesses do something like that often, and I'd assume there are contracts with the factory and stuff that would prohibit that as well. It might also bring to light some things they don't want to be known.

I've mentioned an example where this worked. For a device that could not be more similar to ours that was crowdfunded. So for me it's probably the last thing you said, and I don't know about you, but when I have payed more than 500$ to a company I expect them to be at least transparent when there's more than two months delay and not a single real explanation except 'Things took longer then we considered'

 

3 hours ago, Zamasu said:

Best I think you can hope for is that their email updates are truthful, and often.

Yah. But both is not the case. They're not often, and from what we know now they did not straight lie to us, but it's clear that they leave us in the dark about what's really going on. Don't get me wrong. I'm not afraid I'm getting scammed or something. I still believe in this company and their product. I'm just really really upset about the way they treat their community.

[rtuz2th 29]

4 hours ago, abielins said:

Fxtec is trying to reduce panic, and I understand. I suppose their philosophy is: less information means less to panic about.

Hm. I don't really see a case where the information I asked about could lead to more panic than we already have on this forum. I think worst case scenario could be that every single device that was shipped until now was mentioned in this forum, what would mean batches are even a bit smaller than ps555s worst estimate. Not really a bummer. Or that it takes until June next year until preorders are completed. But I think most people would prefer a 'You will get your device in July' over a 'Oh it's not that long anymore we're working hard' every now and then. Maybe I'm wrong about that.

[Polaris 423]

@rtuz2th It doesn't appear as though you'll ever, at least officially, get the info you are requesting.  I'm not happy with F(x)tec's lack of communication (to put it mildly as it just leads to unwarranted expectations and a large amount of disappointment), but I don't think there is anything nefarious taking place.  That said, it has been shown, by people who know these things that there is currently approximately 2,500 actual devices that have been ordered (I believe it's somewhere between 2,500 and 3,000, but not more than 3,000).  So that answers that.  Then you can look at the folks posting their serial numbers, and discover that the highest number posted in this forum is around 158 which was received just a couple of days ago.  I understand that not everyone receiving phones is posting here, but the fact that someone received #158 a few days ago tells us that they are around there with production.  Then add to the fact that @Erik stated that these days they hope to be producing about 1/10th of pre-ordered phones per week.  Clearly, there are already phones out there, but if we take a tenth of 2,500 we get about 250 phones per week.  It doesn't appear that they have hit this mark yet, but supposedly production has recently increased, so hopefully they will be able to soon.

[Zamasu 258]

9 hours ago, rtuz2th said:

that was crowdfunded

That's a pretty big difference. Only investors there would be the crowd, the pre-orderers. I don't think that's the case here, I think there are a couple of investors here in some form. Just playing devil's advocate here, I don't disagree with your general sentiment.

9 hours ago, rtuz2th said:

I don't really see a case where the information I asked about could lead to more panic than we already have on this forum.

Basically think of anything they promised, and what if the opposite of what they promised came out? What if they aren't producing devices consistently? What if the issues with the screen are more significant? What if IGG aren't prioritized? What if payment date doesn't matter? etc.

All of these I could see increasing panic. And note, these are all baseless "what ifs", I don't necessarily see any reason to believe these.

[divstar 164]

On 12/20/2019 at 3:34 PM, sequestris said:

I hope that as many people as possible sign up for a Pro1.
The better the sales, the greater likelihood we are to get a company that stays in business and provides us service and updates.

I just don't want a year to go by, fxtec, be out of business, and my carrier won't provide me updates because my device is not supported.

Honestly I hope so, too. There's room for improvement on the pro1, but it does well for what I bought it.

[EskeRahn 5,460]

On 12/21/2019 at 11:06 PM, foxfreejack said:

Negative. I am among the last to contribute on IGG. I haven't received a message hinting for a stock assigned or being shipped as of now.

 

On 12/21/2019 at 11:13 PM, Val said:

🙂 I was talking about the phones in ps555 guesstimate.

I'm among the first (#26, order id#40) and and no sign of the phone, in any form.

A tiny question: Why do some in here insist on talking about the order number on IGG and for pre-ordering the Pro1 when it has been told again and again and again and again that is not what matters?? You might as well be comparing your house numbers....

Is it because some in this thread only come to post, and if at all then at best randomly reads any replies?

[Val 75]

2 hours ago, EskeRahn said:

 

A tiny question: Why do some in here insist on talking about the order number on IGG and for pre-ordering the Pro1 when it has been told again and again and again and again that is not what matters?? You might as well be comparing your house numbers....

Is it because some in this thread only come to post, and if at all then at best randomly reads any replies?

Very simple. Altough it should matter, it's only to eliminate a "new" variable, such as "you paid fast, but your IGG number was high". 

Maybe I should add "IGG paid and NOT refunded", because for some people seems to be the same in their logic. And some other people in this thread, post exactly as you've said about anyone else. 

 

[EskeRahn 5,460]

59 minutes ago, Val said:

Very simple. Altough it should matter, it's only to eliminate a "new" variable, such as "you paid fast, but your IGG number was high". 

Maybe I should add "IGG paid and NOT refunded", because for some people seems to be the same in their logic. And some other people in this thread, post exactly as you've said about anyone else. 

 

So you would like to be sure to add another variable to eliminate it? That does not make much sense. Why not shoe and hat size then? 🙄

[Val 75]

37 minutes ago, EskeRahn said:

So you would like to be sure to add another variable to eliminate it? That does not make much sense. Why not shoe and hat size then? 🙄

You're right and I'll raise you with the variable enduser/reseller. Maybe then we will know what's the actual order in which the phones are being sent and to whom. 

[EskeRahn 5,460]

13 minutes ago, Val said:

You're right and I'll raise you with the variable enduser/reseller. Maybe then we will know what's the actual order in which the phones are being sent and to whom. 

At the least that could have some relevance.

We (unfortunately) have too few facts to deduce what is exactly going on. So though I can see several possible explanations, all are just guesses.