On the pre-production status

[_DW_ 628]

2 hours ago, cmar said:

I have not understood all implications of the formula. From the quote above, I understand that it is a move to take into consideration the different time zones and to add fairness to the process. Seems like a nice move.

That they had to develop such a formula seems also to indicate that not all pre-order done before 31st July and paid at the beginning of August will be covered by the batch. Pre-orders done before 31st July seems to be more than 70% of the total number of pre-orders.

 

Should just order it by date paid using the countries timezone instead of UTC for sorting.   That way if they are 8 hours different if they paid at 8 in the morning in one country its treated the same as another even though it was actually hours different.

[EskeRahn 5,460]

26 minutes ago, _DW_ said:

Should just order it by date paid using the countries timezone instead of UTC for sorting.   That way if they are 8 hours different if they paid at 8 in the morning in one country its treated the same as another even though it was actually hours different.

And what about the date line then? That would make a whole days difference for some that paid almost at the same time... There are no easy formula to try to compensate.

But since they even try, I guess that indicates that the 'cut' lies around the days they sent out the mails, around Aug 1. I mean if the cut was say a month later they would hardly bother trying to adjust.

[raphaelcno 21]

On 1/16/2020 at 12:49 PM, Erik said:

[...] "This batch is 6x bigger than the previous batches combined." [...] "It will, however, still include 70% of all pre-orders" [...]

 

So it means that around 12% of all pre-orders have been delivered until now, before this big batch 🙄 

 

[Erik 1,487]

20 minutes ago, raphaelcno said:

[...] "This batch is 6x bigger than the previous batches combined." [...] "It will, however, still include 70% of all pre-orders" [...]

 

So it means that around 12% of all pre-orders have been delivered until now, before this big batch 🙄 

 

With this batch, 70% of all pre-orders will be complete.

[VaZso 1,998]

2 minutes ago, raphaelcno said:

So it means that around 12% of all pre-orders have been delivered until now, before this big batch 🙄 

...and it also means there are at least 1875 real pre-orders taken according to the highest serial number written in another thread and at least about 1312 were manufactured till this time.
(...which may be even higher as not everybody write here...)

[raphaelcno 21]

21 minutes ago, Erik said:

With this batch, 70% of all pre-orders will be complete.

Thank you for the clarification. 

So it means that around 10% (70% / (1+6)) of all pre-orders have been delivered until now.

[Wheeljack 212]

I don't think the latest @thefxtec tweet was mentioned here:

 

[michael.bosscha 142]

12 hours ago, Gigadoc2 said:

Unfortunately not, fxtecs payment provider did not accept my credit card, so I had to use bank transfer (and thus I have no idea as to when they registered the payment).

I'm in the same boat as you are man, I can only hope...

[_DW_ 628]

5 hours ago, EskeRahn said:

And what about the date line then? That would make a whole days difference for some that paid almost at the same time... There are no easy formula to try to compensate.

But since they even try, I guess that indicates that the 'cut' lies around the days they sent out the mails, around Aug 1. I mean if the cut was say a month later they would hardly bother trying to adjust.

basically sort on local time not utc I didn't mean adjust them. They probably don't have local time stored though and didn't bother storing the offset see that a lot never know when you need to know when someone actually did something in the day.

[npatel1050 132]

4 hours ago, Wheeljack said:

I don't think the latest @thefxtec tweet was mentioned here:

 

So it went from all preorders by the 18th, to 70% by the 18th, and now we're at the 20th?

Delays galore... Lol jk

Still terrible communication though. Feels like no one is on the same page

[elvissteinjr 359]

Dispatch could mean to customers, as all units are sent straight from Hong Kong this time around. They'll likely leave the factory on the way to Hong Kong on the 18th, on which they obviously have to be done making them already.

[rob 12]

9 hours ago, VaZso said:

...and it also means there are at least 1875 real pre-orders taken according to the highest serial number written in another thread and at least about 1312 were manufactured till this time.
(...which may be even higher as not everybody write here...)

Just curious, where are you getting these numbers from?

[windraver 63]

thanks for gather all the updates folks! whether it be 70% will be fulfilled in the next batch or that they'll be dispatched on the 20th are both good things to hear!

[VaZso 1,998]

2 hours ago, rob said:

Just curious, where are you getting these numbers from?

...just calculated based on existing parts of information...

[SchattengestaIt 559]

10 hours ago, rob said:

Just curious, where are you getting these numbers from?

There is a serial number thread where people can post the serial number (if highest) of their received Pro1. If we are talking about 12% already fulfilled (I don't know where that number comes from but it hasn't been denied), we can calculate the total number of preorders ( "highest serial number" / "0,12" = total number of preorders).

 

I am not sure though if this is correct since either they could have used parts with higher serial number which have been sent out before others (so the number of preorders would be slower) or people received phones with higher serial number but didn't see the equivalent post.

[Zamasu 258]

4 hours ago, SchattengestaIt said:

If we are talking about 12% already fulfilled (I don't know where that number comes from but it hasn't been denied)

The next batch will bring the total shipped orders to 70%. The next batch is 6 times bigger than previous batches combined. This is all information from Erik.

1/6th of 70% would be what has already been fulfilled then, which is 11 and 2/3rd percent of all pre-orders, or about 12% since no doubt these numbers aren't that accurate. And this upcoming batch would be 58 and 1/3rd percent of all pre-orders (to bring the total to 70%).

EDIT: I got that a bit wrong, see below. Thanks @EskeRahn

Edited January 18, 2020 by Zamasu

[EskeRahn 5,460]

1 hour ago, Zamasu said:

The next batch will bring the total shipped orders to 70%. The next batch is 6 times bigger than previous batches combined. This is all information from Erik.

1/6th of 70% would be what has already been fulfilled then, which is 11 and 2/3rd percent of all pre-orders, or about 12% since no doubt these numbers aren't that accurate. And this upcoming batch would be 58 and 1/3rd percent of all pre-orders (to bring the total to 70%).

Well the calculus is slightly wrong, If the new is six times bigger than the previous, and the total will reach 70%, then the previous was 70% * 1/(1+6) = 10%, and the new 60%. Hence the total is ten times bigger than what has already been sent. I do not know if all previous sent from factory has been delivered to the end users though, or some is still on their way. So what number we should multiply with 10 is not that clear.

[VaZso 1,998]

5 hours ago, EskeRahn said:

Well the calculus is slightly wrong, If the new is six times bigger than the previous, and the total will reach 70%, then the previous was 70% * 1/(1+6) = 10%, and the new 60%.

So this thread has ended up with a simple math equation coming from the real life. 

[Muth 132]

Last tweet from Chen is one step closer to  reality ^^

https://twitter.com/chenliangchen/status/1218571232834129920

[silversolver 849]

10 hours ago, EskeRahn said:

Well the calculus is slightly wrong, If the new is six times bigger than the previous, and the total will reach 70%, then the previous was 70% * 1/(1+6) = 10%, and the new 60%. Hence the total is ten times bigger than what has already been sent. I do not know if all previous sent from factory has been delivered to the end users though, or some is still on their way. So what number we should multiply with 10 is not that clear.

I think the assumption is slightly wrong. @Erik said "70% of all preorders," which in my reading, all preorders includes those already fulfilled, so I'd say this will probably put fulfillment at 90-95% of all preorders. Unfortunately, it means that I won't likely get mine for another month or so, as I didn't pay until nearly the end of November. Oh well. Droid 4 still working. Posting with it, as usual. :) I'm glad Verizonk chickened out on pulling the plug at the end of the year though, because then I'd have had to switch to the potty.....er, PRIV. ;)

[EskeRahn 5,460]

20 hours ago, silversolver said:

I think the assumption is slightly wrong. @Erik said "70% of all preorders," which in my reading, all preorders includes those already fulfilled, so I'd say this will probably put fulfillment at 90-95% of all preorders. Unfortunately, it means that I won't likely get mine for another month or so, as I didn't pay until nearly the end of November. Oh well. Droid 4 still working. Posting with it, as usual. 🙂 I'm glad Verizonk chickened out on pulling the plug at the end of the year though, because then I'd have had to switch to the potty.....er, PRIV. 😉

Well 1+6=7..... Hence 10 respectively 60% totalling 70%....

[EskeRahn 5,460]

6 hours ago, VaZso said:

So this thread has ended up with a simple math equation coming from the real life. 

Now if only this thread came to an end... 🤣

[david 929]

15 minutes ago, EskeRahn said:

Now if only this thread came to an end... 🤣

Yes, what will we all do when March comes and all the pre-orders are filled?  Will we keep this around for discussing regular orders?  :-)

[Sero 89]

We can go back to talking about the weather.

[SchattengestaIt 559]

11 hours ago, silversolver said:

I think the assumption is slightly wrong. @Erik said "70% of all preorders," which in my reading, all preorders includes those already fulfilled, so I'd say this will probably put fulfillment at 90-95% of all preorders. Unfortunately, it means that I won't likely get mine for another month or so, as I didn't pay until nearly the end of November. Oh well. Droid 4 still working. Posting with it, as usual. 🙂 I'm glad Verizonk chickened out on pulling the plug at the end of the year though, because then I'd have had to switch to the potty.....er, PRIV. 😉

Might be that I understand you wrong, but Erik already wrote that 70% will be fulfilled with this batch, not that 70% (more) are covered with his batch.

So there's still 30% of preorders left until this day, although they seem to be working to get a few devices more done before the Chinese New Year begins.